Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
117 FXUS62 KMFL 231150 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 750 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 To begin the week, the mid-level ridge will continue to stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern CONUS, before settling in over the Southeast. The combination of the drier air and high pressure aloft will bring shower and thunderstorm chances below climatological norms again today, with PWATs keeping to 1.5-1.8". At the surface, as high pressure strengthens to the north, easterly flow will gradually increase today as the pressure gradient tightens with the stalled frontal boundary sitting to our south. Morning coastal showers will transition inland and to the west through the afternoon and evening. Remnant showers will linger over the local waters overnight. On Tuesday, it will likely be the driest day of the week ahead. With the moderate easterly flow, and lingering surface boundary across the Florida Straits, much of the precipitation will keep to the south of Alligator Alley. The chance for PoPs will remain low, capping at 30-40%, with only a slight chance around Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be trending warm, just above seasonal normals, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and mid-90s in far SW FL. While the heat indices will likely reach the triple digits, the drier air should provide a relief from heat advisories keeping dew points in the low to mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Models begin the long term with a large area of disturbed weather over the NW Caribbean pushing a plume of deep moisture into the area, with the mid level ridge dominating most of the SE CONUS weakening and migrating further east. POPs/Wx coverage jumps into the 70-80 percent range on Wednesday with model PWATs well above seasonal normals. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, with best chances over the west coast of SoFlo. Ensembles and global model solutions are now falling in better agreement regarding potential for tropical development out of the aforementioned area of disturbed weather, with a strengthening low bringing tightening pressure gradients across the region through the rest of the work week. This will result in breezy and gusty periods as the low pushes northward across the central/eastern GOMEX. As sfc winds veer to a more southerly flow, moisture advection continues across SoFlo with POPs into the 80-90 percent range Thursday and Friday. However, the forecast scenario remains highly uncertain as adjustments will be required depending on which solution materializes. Latest WPC outlooks show much of the region under a Marginal risk for excessive rain on Days 2-4. Therefore, regardless of the final outcome, there is a high confidence level that flood-related hazards can be expected for much of SoFlo in the Wed-Fri timeframe. For the weekend weather, the scenario remains highly uncertain, with long range models still showing significant divergence in potential solutions. The increasing cloud cover and rain activity should bring down temps across the area, with afternoon highs likely remaining in the mid to upper 80s, and depending on timing and coverage of rainfall, some locations may end up cooler than that. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s through the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Morning Atlantic showers could impact the east coast terminals with brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions this morning. Easterly wind flow will pick up except for APF where the Gulf sea breeze will turn things westerly. Afternoon shower and storm activity should be focused more inland and then west by the evening. Convection should diminish late evening into the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Generally light winds will veer easterly and strengthen early this week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late this week which may lead to deteriorating conditions across the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low- lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement will remain in effect through Monday evening. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches. However, beginning Tuesday, a high risk of rip currents is likely for the South Florida Atlantic Coast beaches. High Tide Tides... * Virginia Key - 2:09 PM Mon, 2:18 AM Tues * South Port Everglades - 1:28 PM Mon, 1:39 AM Tues * Lake Worth Pier - 1:14 PM Mon, 1:24 AM Tues * Naples Bay, North - 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon * Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 90 80 / 20 20 40 50 West Kendall 92 78 91 78 / 20 20 40 60 Opa-Locka 92 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 50 Homestead 90 79 90 80 / 10 20 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 90 80 / 20 20 30 40 Pembroke Pines 93 80 92 80 / 20 20 40 40 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 79 / 30 20 30 30 Boca Raton 91 79 91 79 / 30 20 30 40 Naples 92 77 93 78 / 30 20 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...RAG