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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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097 FXUS62 KMFL 211635 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1235 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 As a tropical disturbance (Invest AL92) continues to move northwestward this afternoon towards the Florida/Georgia coastline, some drier air continues to wrap around the southern side of the low towards the Lake Okeechobee region as well as South Florida. This will help to limit the coverage of convection across the region for the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. However, there does remain enough lower level moisture to support some shower and thunderstorm development with the main focus of initiation being sea breeze boundaries. With the drier air pocket pushing into the mid levels, this will also act as a cap which will help to keep strong thunderstorm development rather limited this afternoon. As east to southeasterly wind flow remains in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the interior and west coast heading into the afternoon and evening hours. While most of the convection over land will diminsh as the evening progresses, the hi res models are showing increasing shower and thunderstorm development over the Atlantic waters overnight as the drier air pocket erodes and moisture increases. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the east coast metro areas. On Saturday, the tropical disturbance will have pushed inland across Northern Florida and Southeastern Georgia, however, the weakness in the mid level ridging will still remain in place across the region. This will allow for a light steering flow through the day as the surface flow remains east southeasterly. As moisture advection continues throughout the day and PWAT values range between 2.1 and 2.3 inches, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be higher compared to this afternoon. The main focus of convection will still be sea breeze driven, however, with the lighter steering flow in place, convection may linger closer to the east coast metro areas upon development before slowly pushing towards the interior and west. Some stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out mainly across the interior sections on Saturday afternoon and they could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Long range models show increasing rain chances for much of the long term. A persisting southerly component in the low level flow will keep deeper moisture moving across SoFlo, with PWATs of 2 inches or higher. POPs up to 60 percent each afternoon along with sea breezes will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the dominant ridge centered around the SE CONUS will weaken due to the influence of a trough/low complex moving over the NE CONUS early in the week. This will result in weakening pressure gradients and lighter sfc winds over SoFlo below 10 mph. Therefore, any locations affected by slow-moving heavy downpours could experience localized flooding. With the lack of overall steering flow, outflow boundaries and the sea breeze circulations will drive the deeper convection. Thus, concerns about flooding will include any of the already hard-hit metro areas during the latest round heavy rains. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal values with afternoon maximums in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values will remain in the low 100s with prevailing warm and muggy conditions each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ESE winds will become light and variable as the evening progresses. Some shower and thunderstorm activity may approach the east coast terminals during the overnight hours from the Atlantic waters. Winds increase out of the ESE again by the middle of Saturday morning with showers and thunderstorms possible across all terminals on Saturday afternoon. At KAPF, SW winds will become light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters into the upcoming weekend. These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first part of the weekend before subsiding and will remain at 2 feet or less through the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic Coast Beaches through Saturday evening. The rip current risk could remain elevated through the rest of the weekend and into early next week as onshore flow remains in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 80 89 / 40 40 40 60 West Kendall 79 90 77 90 / 40 40 40 60 Opa-Locka 80 91 79 90 / 40 40 40 60 Homestead 79 89 79 89 / 40 40 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 88 80 87 / 40 50 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 80 89 / 40 50 40 60 Pembroke Pines 81 92 80 91 / 40 40 40 60 West Palm Beach 79 90 78 89 / 30 40 40 60 Boca Raton 80 90 80 89 / 40 40 40 60 Naples 78 92 77 90 / 50 70 50 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...CWC