656
FXUS62 KMFL 241743
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Typical summertime conditions will be on tap for South Florida
today, with chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
throughout the day. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS
flights show moderate instability and lapse rates in place across
the area, with a very warm and moist air column up to 500mb (PWATs
of 2.15 inches). The combination of these factors - along with some
dynamic support from a subtle upper level disturbance over the
area - has allowed for a few isolated low-topped showers along the
Atlantic waters and East Coast sea breeze already. Activity will
continue through the afternoon, with convection over the East
Coast very gradually shifting inland and towards the interior and southwest
FL. Storm motion will remain slow with weak winds in the low to
mid levels, which could lead to localized flooding concerns for
poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of
storms. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
primarily over the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro.

The overall synoptic and mesoscale setup will not change much on
Tuesday aside from the upper level disturbance shifting eastward.
Winds at the surface will shift from the south-southwest, so we can
expect another day of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly focused over the interior and
East Coast metro areas.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and
Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight lows
be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s
to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term
period as a mid-level trough dives across the Midwest into the
Southeast US on Wednesday and Thursday, retaining weak troughing
over South Florida through the end of the week. The weak flow will
keep the deep tropical moisture in place over the area, with PWAT
values of 2-2.3" expected each day. By this weekend, guidance
continues to be in good agreement on the mid-level troughing being
gradually pushed out as a mid-level ridge builds across most of
the southern US.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, with deep tropical moisture allowing for
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. One
thing that will change from early in the week is low-level winds
over South Florida will turn more south-southwesterly for mid to
late week, shifting the focus of the sea-breeze convection to be
more over the interior and East Coast metro. Localized flooding
will continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall as well as slow storm motions. High temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat
index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with
some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and
over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally
in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible for all sites
today as slow-moving SHRA/TSRA develop. ESE flow at around 10 kts
will persist through the evening, becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds become more SSW tomorrow at 5-10 knots with
chances of SHRA/TSRA once again for the East Coast in the
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the local waters today. These winds will gradually veer and
become south to southwesterly starting on Tuesday and continuing
through the end of the work-week. Seas across the Atlantic will
remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2
feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the local waters each day and could result in locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  90 /  40  60  50  70
West Kendall     75  90  75  90 /  40  60  50  70
Opa-Locka        77  90  77  91 /  40  60  50  70
Homestead        76  89  77  90 /  40  50  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  77  88 /  40  60  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  77  90 /  40  60  50  70
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  92 /  40  60  50  70
West Palm Beach  76  90  77  90 /  30  60  50  70
Boca Raton       77  90  77  91 /  40  60  50  70
Naples           77  89  78  89 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...ATV