990
FXUS62 KMFL 240504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
the western half of South Florida this evening. With the loss of
diurnal heating, convection will gradually diminish as the evening
progresses. While interior portions of South Florida will remain
dry overnight, additional shower and thunderstorm development will
be possible over the local waters as well as the east coast. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the east
coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mid-level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast
will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid-level trough
dives down across the Great Lakes and into the eastern US. This will
cause the surface high in the western Atlantic to retreat further to
the east, which will weaken the east-to-southeasterly winds across
South Florida. With deep tropical moisture still in place (PWAT
values around 2.1-2.3"), scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Storm motion will once again be slow due
to the weak steering flow, however, convection initiating along the
East Coast early this afternoon will slowly try to push towards the
interior and Gulf Coast during the middle afternoon and evening
hours. With a bit more instability in place as well as the addition
of some mid to upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break
down, some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds cannot be ruled out
later in the afternoon. The primary concern with the storms today is
that they will be slow-moving, which will increase the potential for
localized flooding, especially for areas that get hit repeatedly,
have poor drainage, or are already saturated from heavy rainfall
yesterday. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s
and lower 90s across most areas, with heat indices around the low
100s. While overall convection will not be as widespread, showers
and storms will still be around tonight, primarily over the Atlantic
waters and along the East Coast metro.

On Monday, the mid-level troughing will continue to dive down across
the eastern US, pushing out any influence of mid-level ridging over
South Florida. The surface high over the Atlantic will weaken
further, resulting in very weak southeasterly winds across our area.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will again develop
across the area due to the deep tropical moisture in place and
enhanced instability from the mid-level trough. Storm motion will
remain slow, continuing to lead to localized flooding concerns for
poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms.
High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through this week as
a mid-level trough persists over the eastern seaboard of the
United States. The trough axis will deamplify a bit on Tuesday,
but additional moisture will stream in over South Florida. A
reinforcing trough will push through the southeastern United
States on Wednesday into Thursday, while another burst of tropical
moisture moves across the Caribbean to close out the week and kick
off the weekend.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, but the additional bursts of tropical
moisture and presence of low pressure around the region will allow
for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day.
Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. Overnight
temperatures, particularly along the East Coast metro areas where
weak onshore flow persists, will struggle to drop below 80 most
nights this week. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely
reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching
105 to 109 range by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SCT MVFR ceilings expected this morning as widely SCT showers and
isolated thunderstorms remain possible. Coverage of showers and
storms increases this afternoon into early evening, with VCTS at
all locations after 16Z. Outside of thunderstorms, light and
variable winds this morning become E/SE around 10 kts except for
APF where a westerly Gulf breeze will develop this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into
early this week. These winds will gradually veer and become more
southerly by the middle portion of the week. Seas across the
Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf
remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents today along the
Atlantic beaches as onshore flow persists. The risk will diminish
early in the week as the onshore flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  90  78 /  70  40  70  50
West Kendall     89  75  90  75 /  70  40  60  50
Opa-Locka        89  77  90  77 /  70  40  60  50
Homestead        88  77  89  76 /  60  40  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  88  78 /  60  40  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  89  78 /  60  40  60  50
Pembroke Pines   90  78  92  79 /  70  40  60  50
West Palm Beach  89  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
Boca Raton       89  77  90  76 /  60  40  60  50
Naples           89  77  89  78 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF