423
FXUS62 KMFL 241123
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The week will start off with continued unsettled weather across
South Florida as mid-level troughing dives down across the eastern
US, pushing out any influence of mid-level ridging over the area.
Surface high pressure over the Atlantic will weaken further,
resulting in very weak southeasterly winds across our area. Deep
tropical moisture already in place (PWAT of 2.1") will get a bit
of enhancement up to 2.2-2.3" today as additional moisture moves
in from over the Caribbean. This, along with extra lift from the
mid-level troughing, will result in another day of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily initiating along sea
breeze boundaries. Chances will be highest along the East Coast
metro during the morning to early afternoon hours, shifting to the
interior and Gulf Coast during the mid afternoon to evening
hours. Storm motion will remain slow with weak winds in the low to
mid levels, which will lead to localized flooding concerns for
poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of
storms. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
primarily over the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro.

The overall synoptic and mesoscale setup will not change much on
Tuesday aside from the mid-level troughing over the area slightly
weakening. So, we can expect another day of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and heavy downpours
being the primary concerns.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and
Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight
lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and
upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term
period as a mid-level trough dives across the Midwest into the
Southeast US on Wednesday and Thursday, retaining weak troughing
over South Florida through the end of the week. The weak flow will
keep the deep tropical moisture in place over the area, with PWAT
values of 2-2.3" expected each day. By this weekend, guidance
continues to be in good agreement on the mid-level troughing being
gradually pushed out as a mid-level ridge builds across most of
the southern US.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, with deep tropical moisture allowing for
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. One
thing that will change from early in the week is low-level winds
over South Florida will turn more south-southwesterly for mid to
late week, shifting the focus of the sea-breeze convection to be
more over the interior and East Coast metro. Localized flooding
will continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall as well as slow storm motions. High temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat
index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with
some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and
over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally
in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Generally VFR this morning, although a few terminals along the
East Coast could experience brief periods of MVFR due to low cloud
decks over the area. Light/variable winds become ESE around 10
kts later this morning, with the exception o APF where a westerly
Gulf breeze will develop this afternoon. Widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be likely early afternoon, mostly west of
the terminals, but a few early storms could result in sub-VFR
impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the local waters through early this week. These winds will
gradually veer and become south to southwesterly and light by the
middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain
at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or
less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  90  77 /  70  40  60  50
West Kendall     89  75  90  75 /  70  40  60  50
Opa-Locka        89  77  90  77 /  70  40  60  50
Homestead        88  77  89  77 /  60  40  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  88  77 /  70  40  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  89  77 /  60  40  60  50
Pembroke Pines   90  78  92  78 /  70  40  60  50
West Palm Beach  89  77  90  77 /  60  30  60  50
Boca Raton       89  77  90  77 /  60  40  60  50
Naples           89  77  89  78 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...ATV