Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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553 FXUS62 KMFL 090701 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 301 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The mid/upper level trough that has been advecting through the region will move further off to the east and offshore on Sunday, but hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with afternoon/evening convection expected. If convection and cloud cover increases earlier in the morning, an advisory can likely hold off but on the contrary it would likely become necessary. Monday will largely be a similar setup, although we will start to see a mid to upper level low form and strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico that will play a factor in the weather for later in the week. Nonetheless, expect Monday to see more convection during peak heating hours and for the sea breezes to initiate most of the stronger storms on Monday. Due to an ongoing weak steering flow, will have to monitor for more urban flooding chances on Monday. Highs on Monday will be around 90 to the low 90s for most areas and mid to upper 80s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 To begin the long term period, a mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters as a mid to upper level low begins to take shape over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the steering flow to remain south-southwest over South Florida which results in continuous deep tropical moisture advection into the region from the Caribbean Sea. In return, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are projected to continue developing over South Florida each day with the focus over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Beginning on Tuesday, long range models are highlighting high pressure remaining over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are showing a tropical low pressure system advecting northward from the Caribbean Sea into the center of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of the south-southwest wind flow over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to constantly work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, numerous rain showers along with some thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida for the middle to end of the week. Some of the showers and thunderstorms could produce periods of heavy rain over South Florida during this time frame. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the low but it should become more confined over the next couple of days. More information is provided in the hydro section below. Highs for this time period extending Tuesday and beyond will be cooler over South Florida mainly in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rain. However, the lows will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior areas to around 80 metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Although a few showers can`t be ruled out this morning, the best chances for shower and thunderstorms look to be in the early-mid afternoon period with TEMPOs likely to eventually be required for some terminals. Outside of thunderstorm outflows light and variable winds this morning will trend SE at the east coast terminals and W-SW at KAPF by this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters the rest of this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas at times. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with winds 5-15 kts and out of the south/southwest and seas 2 ft or less. Southerly winds will begin to increase next week, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely through the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Medium range guidance is indicating that PWAT values over South Florida will be increasing to 2.5 to 2.8 inches by the middle to end of next week due to the deep tropical moisture advecting into South Florida from the southwest. These PWAT values will be near or at the maximum PWAT values for this time of year. These high PWAT values will support the potential for heavy rainfall to occur over the region from Tuesday through at least Friday. This rainfall could result in flooding, particularly as the ground becomes increasingly saturated through the period. At this time there is still considerable uncertainty on both the potential accumulation values as well as the placement of the heaviest rainfall, however it is possible that a flood watch will need to be issued for portions of South Florida in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 90 79 / 70 40 80 60 West Kendall 91 76 92 76 / 70 50 80 60 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 70 40 80 60 Homestead 90 78 90 78 / 60 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 90 79 / 60 40 80 70 N Ft Lauderdale 91 79 90 79 / 60 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 79 / 60 40 80 60 West Palm Beach 92 77 91 76 / 50 40 80 60 Boca Raton 92 78 92 78 / 50 40 80 60 Naples 91 80 90 79 / 50 40 70 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Carr