Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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968 FXUS62 KMFL 071943 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 343 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions continue today and throughout the weekend, with peak heat indices in the 105 to 112 range. - Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend, with some strong storms possible. South Florida will remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through Saturday under the base of a mid-level trough that stretches up across the Eastern US. South-southwest flow in the low levels will continue to pump a hot and humid airmass into the region, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices in the 105-112 range for most areas. This has prompted Heat Advisories along the East Coast metro counties for today. Saturday has the potential to be a few degrees warmer than today, so another round of Heat Advisories or even Excessive Heat Warnings may be required across nearly all of South Florida. The only potential relief for residents would be when scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms temporarily move through and cool things down. With relatively cool mid-level temps around -8C and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg each afternoon, a few strong to even storms cannot be ruled out, especially along the sea breeze. Most storms will be garden-variety, capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 As the mid level trough pushes off into the western Atlantic, mid level ridging will try to build into the region from the Gulf of Mexico for the second half of the weekend. Heading into the early portion of the week, another amplifying mid level trough will dig across the eastern seaboard which will quickly begin to flatten the mid level ridge over the region. At the surface, the frontal boundary stalled out to the north will help to keep the south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. With plenty of moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon and evening as the sea breezes push inland and interact with each other. The highest chances will remain across the interior and east coast. Hot temperatures will continue on Sunday and Monday as temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s area wide. Peak heat index values could range from 105 to 110 each day with some localized areas potentially rising higher than 110 across the interior. Heading towards the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty level in the forecast rises as a mid to upper level disturbance pushes towards the Gulf Coast states and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a broad disturbance may slowly try to organize during this time frame. This will allow for deep tropical moisture advection to take place across the region during the middle of the week. Regardless of whether or not any development takes place, the potential for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms will be in place for the middle to latter portion of the week as southerly wind flow continues. This will also introduce the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding during this time frame, however, the exact details of where this sets up remains highly uncertain with differences in guidance remaining in place. With the increased cloud cover possible for the middle portion of the week, this could provide some relief from the hot temperatures. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions through this evening, especially for the Atlantic sites. TEMPOs may be required. WSW winds at the Atlantic sites will veer to the S/SE around 10kt after the sea breeze moves inland this afternoon, then light and variable later in the evening. APF will keep a westerly flow through the afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend and likely into early next week, with winds in the 5-10kt range. Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 30 60 West Kendall 76 93 75 93 / 20 50 30 60 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 93 / 20 60 30 60 Homestead 76 91 78 91 / 20 50 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 78 91 / 20 50 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 78 91 / 20 50 30 60 Pembroke Pines 79 94 79 95 / 20 60 30 60 West Palm Beach 76 94 76 93 / 20 50 20 60 Boca Raton 77 93 78 93 / 20 50 30 60 Naples 79 92 80 93 / 20 30 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074- 168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Culver