679
FXUS62 KMFL 161121
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
721 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A change in the weather pattern begins across South Florida today as
mid to upper level ridging builds into the Southeastern part of the
country. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Northeast
will shift into the western Atlantic off of the New England
coastline. This will help to shift the winds across the region to an
easterly direction heading into this afternoon. With PWAT values
still ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches across most of the area
today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop
as diurnal heating increases. The main driver for convection today
will be the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland. With easterly
wind flow taking over, the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity
will be over the interior and west coast this afternoon and this
evening. While there will still be an increased amount of cloud
cover through a good portion of the day, there will be some areas
that see more peaks of sun which could increase instability
especially over the interior portions this afternoon. While the
potential for strong thunderstorm development will be low, it cannot
be completely ruled out mainly over interior portions of Southwest
Florida where sea breeze and outflow boundaries will interact with
each other. High temperatures will be a bit warmer then what they
have been recently as they will rise into the upper 80s along the
east coast and into the lower 90s across the interior sections.

Heading into Monday, the mid to upper level ridge centered over the
Carolinas will strengthen as the day progresses. At the surface,
high pressure centered to the northeast in the western Atlantic will
also strengthen as it expands southwestward. This will help to
increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for
easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region
heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier
air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to
around 1.5 inches near the Lake Okeechobee region, however, PWAT
values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will still hold on across the southern
areas. Enough moisture will be in place to support the development
of convection through the day. The focus will shift from the east
coast in the morning, to the interior and west coast during the
afternoon hours. With plenty of subsidence and drier air pushing
into the mid levels, convection will be shallow and fast moving as
the potential for strong thunderstorm development will remain very
limited. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from the
upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the
interior. |

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

To wrap up the first half of the week, models continue to indicate a
surface high pressure building across the FL Peninsula from the
west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the normal
summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze convection and
activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor
better chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior &
Gulf Coast as the east coast sea breezes should start early in the
afternoon and quickly push inland. However, scattered showers and
a few strong storms may still affect some of the east coast metro
areas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak start of
the sea breeze circulations. However, lower PWATs (~1.5"), and
forecast QPF, are indicating the potential for light showers
ahead.

As we move into the latter half of the week, disagreement in the
deterministic and ensembles leave minor confidence in the long
term forecast across South FL. The latest run of the Euro and GFS
ensembles indicate the potential for a shortwave flow, with a
surface low, approach from the Bahamas. However, model guidance
continues to vary as to where the impact "bullseye" hits in
Florida/southeastern US, but one agreement - there will be an
increase in moisture approach from the southeast (PWATS >2.0") as
we reach the late week and weekend. Details to be determined as we
move into the week.

Throughout the week as a whole, high temperatures are expected to
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper
90s or even triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds will increase out of the east later this
morning. Scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon,
however, they should remain away from the terminals as they push
towards the interior. The exception to this will be at KAPF,
where showers and thunderstorms may develop near the terminal
heading into the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will
become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week.
Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the
middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous
marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally
higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will
gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  88  79 /  30  20  40  30
West Kendall     90  77  89  77 /  30  20  40  30
Opa-Locka        90  79  89  79 /  30  20  40  30
Homestead        88  79  88  79 /  30  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  86  80 /  40  20  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  87  79 /  40  20  40  30
Pembroke Pines   91  79  91  80 /  30  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  89  78  88  78 /  40  20  40  30
Boca Raton       89  79  89  79 /  40  20  40  30
Naples           91  77  92  77 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV