987
FXUS62 KMFL 201750
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Typical summertime conditions will be on tap for South Florida
today, with chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across the interior and southwest Florida coastline. Sounding date
from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show moderate instability
and lapse rates in place across the area, with dry air in the mid-
levels with near climo moisture near the surface. The combination of
these factors has allowed for a few isolated low-topped showers
along the East Coast earlier today, but the dry air aloft has helped
limit ascent and further vertical development. Activity will
continue through the afternoon, mainly over the interior and Gulf
Coast as the dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea
breeze further inland.

On Friday, models show a large area of enhanced moisture associated
with a weak surface trough over the southwest Atlantic gradually
migrating towards the region. Some of these models show dry air
potentially wrapping around the southwestern side of the trough and
over our region, which could help limit widespread rainfall across
South FL. Winds will veer slightly from the southeast, which will
help in concentrating scattered showers and thunderstorm activity
towards the Lake region in the afternoon hours.

Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the
breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s.
Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the
day, with highs in the low 90s. Conditions on Friday could get
slightly warmer, with temperatures along the East Coast potentially
reaching the 90s. Temperatures indexes will hit triple digits each
afternoon but should remain below advisory criteria.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Friday Night through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern at the
start of the extended period will be characterized by mid-level
ridging centered over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over
the western US. This pattern will essentially reverse itself
Sunday into early next week, as the ridge retrogrades into the
southwestern US and longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern
US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda will remain the
main feature of interest through the weekend maintaining moderate
E/SE low-level flow over South Florida. Towards the end of the
extended period, the aforementioned high will shift eastward
resulting in sea-breeze driven circulations prevailing by early
next week.

In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely
follow those of a typical easterly regime through the weekend
with the best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters and
east coast in the morning and early afternoon, followed by the
risk of showers and storms increasing on the west coast later in
the afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall, rain
chances look to be in the high-end chance to low-end likely (PoPs
~ 45-60%) range through this period, with near to just above climo
deep-layer moisture (PWATs ~1.9-2.2"), will partially offset
synoptic subsidence from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly
flow weakens early next week, the models continue to indicate the
diurnal evolution of daily storms shifting to become more
interior-focused.

Temperatures will be just above seasonal and quite consistent
through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s to mid-90s with heat indices peaking around 103-
107.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Generally VFR through the period. KAPF could see brief periods of
MVFR conditions later today as SHRA/TSRA develop along the Gulf
Coast, which could prompt short-fuse amendments. Gusty easterly
flow prevails through the evening, with wind speeds decreasing
overnight and into tomorrow, when flow veer from the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Winds begin relaxing a little with both wind speeds and seas
gradually dropping to below advisory criteria on both sides of the
peninsula later today. The SCA will expire this morning for the
Gulf, and in the early afternoon for the Atlantic waters. Moderate
E/ESE winds will prevail through the end of the work week, but
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any
thunderstorm that forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Persisting robust coastal easterly winds will keep a high risk of
rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches through Friday, then
relaxing enough for risk level to drop to moderate during the
weekend. Surf should also gradually decrease today and tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  81  89 /  10  40  40  50
West Kendall     76  91  79  91 /  10  50  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  91  81  91 /  10  40  30  50
Homestead        79  90  80  89 /  10  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  81  88 /  10  40  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  81  89 /  10  40  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  93  81  92 /  10  40  30  50
West Palm Beach  76  90  79  90 /  10  30  20  50
Boca Raton       77  90  81  90 /  10  30  30  50
Naples           75  92  78  92 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650-
     670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV