802
FXUS62 KMFL 151950
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
350 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A mid to upper broad low pressure will remain over the
Southeastern United States as a board surface trough remains over
the Lake Okeechobee region. This will keep a light south to
southwest steering flow over South Florida along with PWAT values
around the 2 to 2.1 inch range.

This weather pattern will allow for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue to over the southern areas of South
Florida through the evening before dissipating tonight. The
showers and thunderstorms will then redevelop over South Florida
on Monday and focus over the eastern areas of South Florida during
the afternoon and evening hours.

A few of the storms could be strong this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon over the eastern areas where the sea breezes
collide. The primary impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall.

The winds will be light tonight over South Florida along with high
humidity. At the same time, the grounds are becoming saturated
over the region. This combination of the two should allow for some
fog formation over the interior and west coast metro areas late
tonight into early Monday morning with the best coverage over the
interior areas. Therefore, Patchy to areas of fog has been added
to the forecast for the interior and west coast metro areas for
late tonight into early Monday morning.

Lows tonight will fall down into the mid to upper 70s over most
areas except around 80 over the metro areas. Highs on Monday will
again get up into the lower to mid 90s over South Florida with dew
points in the mid to upper 70s. This will allow for the heat
indices to increase again into the 105 to 110 range over South
Florida. Therefore, a heat advisory could again be needed for
portions of South Florida on Monday and will let the night shift
decide if one needs to be put up for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Models show a prevailing weather pattern over the SE CONUS dominated
by a mid level trough/low complex for much of the work week,
while ridging further to the north should provide enough blocking
to keep the low lingering in place. Some solutions still suggest
that the low could acquire tropical characteristics while moving
over the western Atlantic waters by mid week. But its expected
track should push it further to the NE and away from the region.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic high should remain centered well to the
east of the region, which will result in weak pressure gradients
over SoFlo for much of the long term.

The overall synoptic scenario will keep a very weak flow at the sfc,
becoming light or even calm at times. Flow aloft should remain
generally from the SW or W, and keeping modest moisture advection in
place. Latest global models show potential for some drier air to
filter into the mid levels from the GOMEX early in the week. This may
lower PWATs into near normal values, but not enough to bring POPs
down below 50 percent. However, enough uncertainty remains in the
possible synoptic scenario to expect some revisions to the
forecast philosophy. Latest model PWATs remain around the 1.7 to
2.1 inch range. The prevailing weak sfc winds and the generally SW
flow aloft will keep a rain pattern favoring SoFlo`s interior and
eastern metro areas. Deeper convection will again focus along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries, mainly in the afternoon hours,
with max POPs in the 50-60% range each day.

In terms of temps, afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little
and fall back to seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak
heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should
remain just below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light westerly flow continues through the afternoon with scattered
showers and thunderstorms potentially impacting sites through
around 00Z. Very light and variable flow overnight will
potentially become easterly-southeasterly at east coast sites if
sea breeze is able to push far enough inland although there is
some uncertainty with this solution. Patchy fog is possible for
APF during the morning hours although not enough confidence to
include in TAF yet. Additional convection may impact sites during
the morning hours and continue through the afternoon tomorrow. &&

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most
of this week as a frontal boundary and associated low pressure
remain north of the area. Seas over the Gulf waters will generally
be 2 feet or less with seas increasing this afternoon into Monday
over the Atlantic waters as northerly swell generated by low
pressure off the SE Coast moves in. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and
could lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The threat of rip currents will continue to increase along the
east coast beaches of South Florida this afternoon into Monday due
to a northeast swell working into these waters from the North. The
treat should then decrease for the middle to end of this week, as
the northeast swell dissipate.

From this afternoon through the middle of the week, there will be
the potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high
tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full
moon. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  93  78  89 /  30  60  30  50
West Kendall     78  93  76  91 /  30  60  30  50
Opa-Locka        79  93  78  91 /  30  60  30  50
Homestead        80  92  78  89 /  30  50  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  78  89 /  30  60  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  93  78  90 /  30  60  40  50
Pembroke Pines   79  93  78  92 /  30  60  30  50
West Palm Beach  77  93  78  90 /  20  50  30  50
Boca Raton       79  92  78  91 /  20  50  40  50
Naples           80  90  78  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-070-075.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto