Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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539 FXUS62 KMFL 201147 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 747 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Models depict a rather large area of enhanced moisture associated with a weak short wave trough over the SW Atl gradually migrating towards the region. This feature will bring higher PWATs and increasing low-lvl moisture, with the bulk of the moisture starting to reach the central portions of the peninsula by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a deep-layered ridge remains in place across the SE CONUS and keeping modest to robust east to east-northeast over SoFlo. This will result in continuing passing showers and thunderstorms generally moving east-to-west, but with highest POPs increasing into the 55-60 percent range by this afternoon. Expect scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms first moving or developing around east coast metro areas, then pushing into the interior and western portions of SoFlo by mid afternoon. Collier/M-Monroe show best chances with POPs around 60. Main hazards include lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. For Friday, the synoptic scenario remains generally the same but with the aforementioned ridge becoming more flatten by the approaching trough. This will veer somewhat winds to a more SE flow, which will help in concentrating showers and thunderstorm activity towards the Lake region in the afternoon hours. But overall coverage will become more widespread than today. Also, the situation regarding the weak trough in the Atlantic, Invest 92L, will continue to be closely monitored as any changes in its development could result in significant changes to the forecast outlook. Despite the increased cloudiness/rain/storm activity, temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across SoFlo. Today heat index values will remain in the upper 90s for much of the area, with low 100s over Gulf coast locations. Friday will exhibit higher indices with low-mid 100s across the board. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Friday Night through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be characterized by mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over the western US. This pattern will essentially reverse itself Sunday into early next week, as the ridge retrogrades into the southwestern US and longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda will remain the main feature of interest through the weekend maintaining moderate E/SE low-level flow over South Florida. Towards the end of the extended period, the aforementioned high will shift eastward resulting in sea-breeze driven circulations prevailing by early next week. In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely follow those of a typical easterly regime through the weekend with the best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters and east coast in the morning and early afternoon, followed by the risk of showers and storms increasing on the west coast later in the afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall, rain chances look to be in the high-end chance to low-end likely (PoPs ~ 45-60%) range through this period, with near to just above climo deep-layer moisture (PWATs ~1.9-2.2"), will partially offset synoptic subsidence from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly flow weakens early next week, the models continue to indicate the diurnal evolution of daily storms shifting to become more interior-focused. Temperatures will be just above seasonal and quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with heat indices peaking around 103- 107. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period as robust easterly winds prevail. Scattered SHRA early this morning could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along East Coast sites. TSRA will be possible in the afternoon, but impacts will be most likely for KAPF. Conditions improve overnight, but VCTS is likely for all sites once again tomorrow as winds shift from the southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Winds begin relaxing a little with both wind speeds and seas gradually dropping to below advisory criteria on both sides of the peninsula later today. The SCA will expire this morning for the Gulf, and in the early afternoon for the Atlantic waters. Moderate E/ESE winds will prevail through the end of the work week, but brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Persisting robust coastal easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches through Friday, then relaxing enough for risk level to drop to moderate during the weekend. Surf should also gradually decrease today and tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 90 81 / 50 20 50 40 West Kendall 89 76 91 79 / 50 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 89 78 91 81 / 50 10 50 30 Homestead 88 78 89 80 / 50 20 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 86 79 88 81 / 50 20 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 89 81 / 60 20 50 30 Pembroke Pines 90 79 92 81 / 50 10 50 30 West Palm Beach 88 76 90 79 / 60 10 50 20 Boca Raton 88 77 90 81 / 60 20 50 30 Naples 92 74 92 78 / 60 20 60 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV