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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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512 FXUS66 KMFR 220953 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 253 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... As high pressure remains in place, warm to very warm and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday. A thermal trough along the coast will bring breezy to gusty northeast winds over ridges, strongest over the Coast Range, through Tuesday morning. Offshore, northeast winds are expected to also bring a mild warming, Chetco Effect, to the Brookings area today and Monday, with high temperatures likely into the 80s. Then, mid to late week, this pattern will change as a couple weak fronts and upper level troughs arrive. The first of these, on Wednesday, will bring a 20-50% chance of light rain to southwest Oregon with highest probability along the coast and lower chances (15-25%) into Douglas County Wednesday into Wednesday night. For areas in and around Medford, chances for light rain are lower, around 10%. Models are showing fairly good agreement on the timing of the front with the best chances for rain occurring Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Additionally, with this front, models continue to show the potential for gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades on Wednesday afternoon/evening. A weaker front is then forecast to arrive Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures are expected to trend cooler on Friday and there will be additional chances (20-40%) for light rain, mainly along the coast and into Douglas County. Variability in the model forecasts increase beyond Friday, with the possibility of another upper trough and front moving into the area late om the weekend. However, models show variability in the track, timing and strength of this system. So confidence is low in the details. && .AVIATION...22/06Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail for most of the area through the TAF period. The exception being some localized LIFR conditions in fog and low clouds around the Coquille Basin, which could temporarily affect North Bend (KOTH). Any lower conditions that develop will quickly improve to VFR Sunday morning. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, September 22, 2024...A thermal trough and associated pressure gradient along/near the coast will remain in place through early this week; as a result, strong northerly winds and very steep seas are expected through at least Monday. The steep seas will focus south of Coos Bay this morning and eventually south of Bandon later this afternoon, with a a main emphasis on areas south. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland with weakening winds and easing seas late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in relatively calm seas and light wind speeds through at least Friday. -Spilde/Hermansen && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 AM Sunday September 21, 2024... A thermal trough will remain along the coast, resulting in breezy to gusty, overnight/morning northeast winds over the coastal ridges through Tuesday morning. A high pressure ridge will remain in place through Tuesday, resulting in afternoon temperatures trending warmer. During the day Tuesday, the thermal trough will expand north, weaken and move inland. This will result in afternoon temperatures peaking for the interior westside valleys. Meanwhile weak onshore flow will set up near and at the coast, resulting in higher afternoon humidities. There`s good agreement that an upper trough will push into the area Wednesday along with a surface front which could bring light precipitation to the northwest part of Fire Zone 616 and most of 615 Wednesday night. However of bigger concern will be moderate to occasionally strong winds east of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Right now, the combination of winds and relative humidities won`t result in critical conditions, but it will be close and there could be brief periods of time where critical conditions could be met in portions of fire zones 625 and 285. For now we`ll headline the winds and low RH`s and we`ll continue to monitor the situation. Thursday will be dry with gusty afternoon and early evening breezes for the interior west valleys and east of the Cascades. Another front will push into the area Friday with the best chance for precipitation in fire zones 616 and 615. However, rainfall amounts will likely be less than a 0.10 of an inch. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ029>031. CA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ CC