Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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629 FXUS66 KMFR 231103 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 403 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .DISCUSSION...Strengthening high pressure through Tuesday wIll allow for afternoon highs to increase 5 to 10 degrees today and then again Tuesday when values will reach 15 to 20 degrees above normal. An approaching upper trough will then allow for changing weather Wednesday with rain chances at the coast and Umpqua, cooler temperatures and increasing and gusty south winds for the mountains and east side. Rain amounts Wednesday will be somewhat measly, mainly less than a tenth of an inch across Coos, Curry and Douglas counties. Isolated mountainous locations may see up to two tenths in these areas. Flat zonal flow continues over the region thereafter through Friday with another weak cold front grazing the CWA to the north Friday night. Rain amounts should stay isolated to the coast and probably only Coos county with very light amounts. Stavish && .AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS...VFR conditions prevail across the region with high level clouds streaming over the area. IFR/LIFR conditions have again returned to the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Basin and will persist into early Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the rest of the area through the TAF period. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, September 22, 2024...A thermal trough remains in place over the Oregon coast. The trough will continue bringing gusty northerly winds through early Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for wind-built steep seas of water south of Bandon through Tuesday at 11 AM. Periods of very steep and hazardous seas are possible south of Pistol River late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. After the current Advisory ends, northwest swell will keep seas in the 7 to 8 foot range with longer periods keeping seas below Advisory levels in the middle of the week. Northwest swell is forecast to increase on Friday morning, with swell-built steep seas possible through Friday and Saturday. Additional guidance will help to determine the exact timing and levels of conditions over the weekend. -TAD && .FIRE WEATHER...Main items of concern are current offshore flow with gusty northeast winds over Curry and Western Josephine counties, and then increasing south wind on Wednesday with low humidity for the east. Current values at Red Mound are NE at 18G37 mph with RH near 30 percent. This condition will abate this morning as the thermal trough expands up the coast with a weakening pressure gradient. Latest look continues to support conditions remaining a notch outside of Watch/Warning criteria for the east Wednesday. Expect South winds 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph with MinRH readings of 15 to 20 percent in Lake and Modoc Counties. Stavish .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$