Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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423 FXUS66 KMFR 191052 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 352 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .DISCUSSION...Generally benign conditions are expected through the forecast period with near to occasionally above normal temperatures and no precipitation chances outside of some light marine layer drizzle. Skies are clear for most of the region this morning with the exception of marine stratus over the waters and draped along the coast into the Coquille Basin. Residual moisture from recent rainfall is allowing for the development of patchy low clouds in the Umpqua Basin, otherwise skies are clear across the region. Low pressure responsible for the recent rainfall will continue to trek southward today and a thermal trough will develop along the coast. To the west, high pressure aloft will linger over the eastern Pacific Ocean, largely blocking the storm door for our area. The storm track will remain to the north, but shortwaves will ride over the top of the ridge, moving into the region on northwest flow over the weekend. No precipitation is expected with these shortwaves, but expect increases in afternoon breezes at times. This pattern will lead to near normal temperatures for the interior with cool mornings giving way to warm afternoons (low-mid 80s for West Side Valleys, mid-upper 70s for East Side). With a thermal trough in place, northeast flow will bring some warmer temperatures at times to the Brookings area with upper 70s-low 80s possible through the weekend. This northeast flow will also bring some gusty winds to the ridges overnight, especially to the Kalmiopsis Wilderness area. Recoveries will trend lower Saturday and Sunday mornings, but remain above critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Early next week, ridging nudges into the region Monday and moves overhead on Tuesday. This will bring the hottest temperatures of the forecast period. Tuesday will be the hottest day as the thermal trough moves inland and temperatures in West (East) Side Valleys reach into the low-mid 90s (low-mid 80s). This warm up will be short- lived, however, as the upper level pattern starts to transition on Wednesday when a large scale trough approaches the region. Temperatures trend cooler for the latter half of the week, but most of the guidance maintains dry conditions into next weekend or beyond. /BR-y && .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR will impact coastal locations overnight into Thursday morning, especially from Port Orford northward, but also south of Gold Beach. Expect the stratus/fog to break up around 18z, then gusty north winds (gusts of 25+ kt) will develop at North Bend Thursday afternoon. IFR ceilings could return to some areas Thursday night, but probably not as widespread as tonight. Inland, areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin overnight into Thursday morning, including at Roseburg. Highest probability of MVFR ceilings is from 12-18Z, then VFR will return Thursday afternoon. Most of the remainder of the area will be VFR for the next 24 hours, aside from patchy valley fog early Thursday, especially in areas that had some rain on Tuesday. Any fog will be short-lived though, only for a few hours at most. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, September 19, 2024...A thermal trough has brought gusty northerly winds, building steep seas in waters south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas will spread to waters north of Cape Blanco later this morning, with very steep and hazardous seas expected south of Pistol River through Friday afternoon. Periods of very steep seas may be possible as far north as Gold Beach today and Friday afternoon and evening. Occasional gale gusts will be possible on the afternoon and evening as well. The thermal trough looks to remain in place through the weekend and into next week, with signs of calming by Tuesday evening. A Hazardous Seas Warning is in place for waters south of Gold Beach and beyond 5 nm from shore, and a Small Craft Advisory will cover all other waters. Currently these hazards are in place through Friday at 5 PM, bu are likely to extend through the weekend. Additional guidance will help to determine the best areal coverage for continuing chaotic seas. -Spilde/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$ MNF/ANH/MAS