218
FXUS66 KMFR 270429
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
929 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024


.DISCUSSION...A cold front has moved through the region with
temperatures notably cooler compared  yesterday. Here at the
airport, temperatures are 17 degrees cooler than this time last
night. WPC has plotted another cold/occluded front offshore this
evening and that should be pushing into the region through tonight
with temperatures lowering a few more degrees. Nothing impactful
to the population or the region at large tonight. There could be
some more drizzle near the coast with some weak lift and a moist
boundary layer. On a more interesting note, there was some
blowing dust observed on satellite earlier this afternoon near
Summer Lake. This really shows how dry and windy it was earlier
this afternoon.

-Smith

.SHORT TERM.../Issued 259 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
A line of higher clouds are moving northeast into more of Douglas
and Josephine counties this afternoon. The stratus is still
present at the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. and will continue
tonight. Winds are strong this afternoon with gusts near 25-35 mph
this afternoon and high profile vehicles will have difficulty
driving.

A cold front is passing today. Drizzle and light rain, less than a
tenth of an inch, is possible tonight near the coast and into
northern Douglas County. This front will bring a cooldown to near
normal temperatures east of the Cascades with slightly below normal
temperatures west. This translates to mostly 70s and low 80s with
60s at the coast. Tonight will also be a colder night east side with
lows in the 30s again. Chemult has a 70-80% probability to see
temperatures fall to or below 36 degrees tonight. Northerly winds
will continue tomorrow and early Saturday and will not be as breezy
as the winds today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Friday
afternoon with highs near 80 east of the Cascades and some upper 80s
in the Rogue Valley. Hermansen

.LONG TERM.../Issued 259 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
Saturday through Tuesday...Models are consistent in
timing another marine push into the west side here later Saturday
or Saturday night with west side marine clouds and possibly some
additional coastal drizzle. Thereafter the common theme is warming
weather under building high pressure and stable conditions next
week. NBM shows chances of exceeding 90 in Medford increasing
from only 38% Tuesday to 58% Wednesday, then to above 60%
Thursday through Friday. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION 27/00Z TAFS...A cold/occluded front is pushing towards
the coast at this hour with some lower ceilings out over the waters
and plenty of mid level cu around 4000 feet west of the Cascades.
We`re also watching some blowing dust off of Summer Lake, although
it`s unclear how low visibilities are in the dust. The dust doesn`t
look all that thick based off of satellite data, so visibilities are
likely >1 SM. This also implies it is fairly windy east of the
Cascades today with sustained winds 20 to 25 knots out of the west.

As for tonight, it was hard to get a feel for how much moisture will
be in the air based off of soundings over North Bend. We think there
will be MVFR ceilings, although how deep and low the cloud layer is
uncertain.  LIFR and IFR ceilings remain possible along the coast
tonight if the atmosphere has a little more moisture than
anticipated.

Farther inland, VFR ceilings and visibilities are anticipated for
the TAF period with plenty of cu building Thursday afternoon.
Some modes are suggesting a low potential of rain around
Roseburg(KRBG) and North Bend(KOTH) Thursday afternoon.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 815 PM Wednesday, June 26, 2024...Relatively
calm seas under light winds and gentle westerly swell are expected
to continue through Thursday. Gusty north winds will return Thursday
afternoon, with steep seas and advisory level conditions returning
south of Cape Blanco by Thursday night. Another front and deep
marine layer are likely to disrupt the pattern this weekend, with
improved conditions expected Saturday and Sunday. -TAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER.../Issued 259 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
Red Flag conditions being observed this afternoon across much of
the east with sites gusting 30-40 mph and RHs into the 10-15%
range. Winds are going to be on the decrease tonight. Thursday
morning more marine clouds will push into the west side with some
possible scattered coverage through early morning over the Rogue
Valley and banked into the Siskiyous. Later Thursday through
Friday should see a short warming/drying trend before another weak
trough passage and marine push by mid to late weekend. This event
shouldn`t cool the temperatures too much. Thereafter next week
looks to be a fairly high confidence warming and drying event.
Some red ERC numbers are showing up toward Thursday and Friday in
the GACC`s 10-day projected table indicating values reaching or
exceeding the 95th percentile. Stavish

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 2
     PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$