297
FXUS62 KMHX 252239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with another cold
front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then
builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into
the weekend with another front Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 640 PM Tue...No significant changes needed to the previous
forecast for eve update. High pressure will extend into the
region from offshore keeping eastern NC dry. We could see some
patchy fog and areas of low stratus clouds develop again late as
weak return flow helps to moisten the low levels overnight, esp
swrn zones where TD`s were highest today. Lows will be typical
for summer in the upper 60s interior to mid 70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tue...Trend for Wed has been for lowered TD`s, as
atms is still in the recovering phase of return flow. This will
keep heat indices below adv criteria, generally topping out
around 100, maybe a degree or two higher, despite fcst high
temps in the mid 90s inland. HREF probs for heat indices above
102 are only 10-20%. A stout onshore flow develops, keeping
coastal locales in the 85-90 range for highs. Forcing for
convection is non existent, so a dry fcst continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Heat and humidity continue this week with
high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related impacts will
be a threat most afternoons through this weekend, with the most
oppressive heat potential Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry
conditions likely Wednesday, with precip likely Thursday and
Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. Then more
scattered diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday,
with better chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as
another front moves in.

Thursday through Friday...Though it will be humid, some mixing
of drier air above the surface during the afternoon will keep
heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect values to
range from 102 to 107 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and
with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will
see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (60-70% chance)
throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night
as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning.
Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass very briefly
builds in but it looks like heat and humidity will win out.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday
afternoon with the highest chances over the coastal plain.

It will be hot again and more humid Thursday ahead of the
front, and if sufficient sunshine is seen before convection
develops, highs will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices
climbing to 105 to 110 briefly. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected Friday behind the front, but we hold on to the humidity
and heat indices will again top 100 degrees and could be as high
as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Monday...Heat and humidity will build again
this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. With high
humidity in place already there will be the potential for
excessive heat as high temps soar into the mid to upper 90s,
which will lead to heat indices reaching 103 to 108 degrees
both Saturday and Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and
Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into
Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind
this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break
finally with near normal conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 640 PM Tue...With high pressure in control, we are
looking at mainly a VFR TAF. However, with moist low levels/wet
soils, and radiational cooling will lead to patchy fog and areas
of low stratus clouds which will result in MVFR to IFR
conditions in the 8-12Z time frames, with greatest probabilities
at KEWN and KOAJ, and possibly ISO. Any fog and/or stratus will
rapidly dissipate after 12Z, with VFR returning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week
with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead
to some periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 640 PM Tue...Serly winds 5-15 kt expected through this
evening as high pressure builds over the waters. Tonight winds
will continue to veer from SE to S late. Seas 2-4 ft, subsiding
to 2-3 ft. Late Wed afternoon/early evening, sswrly flow inc to
sustained 15-20 kt towards evening as thermal gradient inc.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Decent boating conditions expected this week
with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a
cold front moves through.

Winds will strengthen to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of
a cold front. The front will cross the waters during the day
Thursday from north to south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts
behind it and remaining SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to
E flow is then expected Friday at 5-15 kts, with winds becoming
SE at 10-15 kts Saturday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/TL/SGK
MARINE...CQD/TL/SGK