963
FXUS62 KMHX 230546
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
146 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight with troughing developing
in the lee of the Appalachians. A front approaches on Monday, with
another front affecting the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Sat...Everything is tracking well this evening as of
this update. The ongoing FEW/SCT deck of mid level clouds should
increase in coverage and lower over the next few hours with the
potential for low stratus to develop after 2AM across portions
of SW`rn ENC.

Prev Disc...A modest increase in southerly flow should help to
pull the plume of better quality moisture north through all of
ENC tonight. Any diurnal showers will wane quickly with loss of
heating this eve, and a dry fcst in effect overnight. Fog not
expected tonight, as bndry layer should remain mixed enough with
5+ kt winds expected, though low stratus may form once again,
esp w of Hwy 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 333 PM Sat...The aforementioned sswrly flow will cont to
bring hot and humid air to the region. Latest indications are
heat indices remain around the ~100 degree mark or so, possible
a degree or 3 higher for a couple hours, though below heat adv
threshold, so no headlines expected. Later shifts may opt for
SPS to highlight the hot/humid conditions. A few showers or
perhaps a storm are possible, esp inland in the afternoon,
though no big forcing feature is available to warrant higher
than 20-30% tomorrow. Highs range from the mid 90s interior to
80s coast. With the inc gradient, it will become quite gusty in
the afternoon with sswrly winds gusting 20-25 mph (see fire wx
section below).

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...An extended period of heat and humidity is
expected for Eastern NC this week with highs reaching the mid to
upper 90s, and heat indices topping 100 degrees almost every
afternoon, and exceeding 105 degrees at times. There will also
be some decent chances (40-50%) for showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Thursday/Thursday night as two weak fronts move into
the area.

Monday...A cold front will move south into the area Sunday
night, and then slowly push through the area Monday into Monday
night. There remains lower confidence on the evolution of
showers and thunderstorms Monday ahead of the front, with mixed
solutions from forecast guidance. Will maintain a 40-50% precip
outlook, but note the potential for higher rain chances for at
least a portion of the day Monday.

A hot and humid airmass will persist across the area, but the
somewhat unknown extent of shower and cloud coverage casts some
doubt on how hot it will get Monday afternoon. With that in mind
there is again potential for highs to reach the mid 90s inland,
and the low 90s along the coast, with heat indices peaking
100-105 degrees again.

Tuesday through Friday...Behind the weak cold front, slightly
cooler and drier high pressure will temporarily build in
Tuesday, especially along the coast where onshore flow will keep
temps mostly in the 80s. Farther inland the maritime flow will
moderate, and expect temps here to again climb into the low to
mid 90s. A few isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms
will possible as well.

Southerly flow quickly rebuilds Wednesday with low level
thicknesses rising as well. This will likely end up being the
hottest day of the week as temps soar into the mid to upper 90s
inland, and low 90s along the coast. Thankfully the drier
airmass will take time to moisten and humidity levels will be
relatively moderate, leading to heat indices "only" rising into
the low 100s to around 105.

Increasing moisture on Thursday ahead of the next weak cold
front will bring higher humidities, but also the threat of
scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms
(40-50% chance). Temperatures will again climb into the 90s, but
will increasing cloud cover expected, afternoon highs will
likely top out in the low to mid 90s across the area. However
increasing humidity will bring heat indices up to 100-105
degrees in the afternoon.

The cold front may stall across southern NC Friday and lead to
somewhat unsettled conditions again. Either way slightly cooler
temps are likely with heat indices remaining below 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/...
As of 145 AM Sun...Widespread VFR conditions are present early
this morning across the airspace. However, expect low level
stratus to soon develop across most of the inland areas, which
should initially form ceilings around 1000-1500 ft, but will
quickly lower to IFR levels just before sunrise. There is a bit
less confidence in the formation of ceilings than yesterday, but
latest satellite images show some spotty low level stratus
development already. Stratus will burn off quickly after
sunrise, lingering longest across the coastal plain, and then
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today. Strengthening
SW winds during the afternoon will lead to 20-30 kt wind gusts
across the terminals which will continue into the evening.

Tonight, additional influx of low level moisture signals that
another round of low level stratus is likely to form across
Eastern NC. Current guidance suggests a more widespread area
beginning around midnight and lasting through sunrise Monday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions should exist outside
of convection this week which will be most widespread Monday
through the evening. Strong SW winds develop Sunday with winds
gusting 20-30 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 333 PM Sat...Moderately gusty sswrly winds expected
through this evening as gradient cont to tighten. Expect
sustained 10-20 kt through tonight, with seas 2-4 ft cont. On
Sun, gradient inc further ahead of approaching cold front, with
15-25 kt gusting to 30 by afternoon. Have hoisted SCA headlines
all waters, rivers, and sounds, as good mixing produces gusts
above 25 kt for even the inland rivers. Seas build towards 6 ft
by late in the day Sun but esp Sun evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Small craft conditions ongoing through Monday
morning with seas 5-7 ft. Winds will gradually decrease Monday
as the front moves into the waters, but some 25 kt winds may
continue across the southern waters south of Cape Hatteras. The
front will move through the waters Monday night with winds
turning to the N at 5-10 kts behind it. Expect winds to be NE
5-15 kts Tuesday, and then SE at 5-15 kts Wednesday. Seas will
subside to 3-5 ft by Monday evening, and then will become mostly
2-3 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 333 PM Saturday...

 - Elevated fire concerns possible Sunday

Southerly winds increase on Sunday, with gusts of 20-25 mph
expected by afternoon. RH will continue to increase, and is
forecast to only bottom out in the 40s and 50s on Sunday and
Monday. While not a typical fire danger type of day on Sunday,
the breezy conditions and drier fine fuels is noteworthy,
especially for any fire that manages to develop, or any ongoing
fires. Wetting rainfall is still possible on Monday and again
Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ131-136-137-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ135-150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK
FIRE WEATHER...MHX