943
FXUS62 KMHX 172053
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
453 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and
away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard through next week and keep unsettled conditions across
ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4:30 PM Tuesday...The remnants of PTC #8 are now well
inland over SC. An occluded front is draped across NC from west
to east and a surface low has formed along the periphery of this
boundary, which continues to support shower development mainly
north of Highway 70. Activity should wane as we move into the
evening hours due to dry air entrainment in the upper levels.

Given the saturated soils, light winds, and lack of overnight
cloud cover, the environment is primed to support the
development of fog and low stratus, especially over the inner
coastal plain. Lows will drop to the low to mid 60s across the
coastal plain and near 70 along the beaches.

The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers will wane
today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4:30 PM Tuesday...The upper trough will remain dominant
over the eastern US. At the surface, a warm front will be draped
across ENC in association with a series of lows across the
southeastern US. The greatest chance (15-25%) for showers and
thunderstorms associated with this boundary will be across the
inner coastal plain tomorrow afternoon. The greatest instability
will be displaced from the area most likely to see rainfall, so
the severe threat will be low. However, a stronger thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out.

It will be warm and muggy with highs in the mid-80s and
dewpoints in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the
period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend.

Thursday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough
will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast
to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the
weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the
upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff
into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast.
As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of the
feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below
average.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early
evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued
onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps
remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The bulk of remaining shower and
thunderstorm activity is now focused over communities north of
Highway 70. We should continue to dry out through the rest of
the day, but weak winds and plentiful low-level moisture will
keep lower clouds around through the rest of the day.

There`s a good signal for fog and low stratus to develop
tonight, especially over the inner coastal plain. Given the
strong signal in the guidance, it would not be surprising for
inland terminals (PGV and OAJ) to spend at least a few hours at
IFR or LIFR between midnight and sunrise. The typically reliable
GLAMP has IFR ceiling probabilities in the 50-80% range for PGV
and 40-60% range for ISO. These terminals also have a 20-30%
chance of at least IFR visibilities. The GLAMP has terminals
closer to the coast (OAJ and EWN) at a 30-40% chance of MVFR
ceilings and a 10-30% chance of MVFR visibilities between
midnight and sunrise. However, given the weak wind field and
saturated soils, there seems to be a much greater chance at
sub-VFR conditions than what guidance is putting forth for these
areas.

Fog should subside after sunrise, but the low clouds may linger
into the late morning. All terminals should be back to VFR by
tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a
chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily
due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...Dangerous marine conditions persist due
to lingering 6-7 foot seas from former PTC #8. SCAs are in place
for all coastal waters until 4 AM Wednesday and seas will
decrease to 3-5 ft tomorrow. Winds will remain at 10 kt or
less through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt
or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu.
Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt
Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas
could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...In response to the heavy rainfall,
river levels are rising across ENC and will continue to do so
through mid-week. Flood Warnings are already posted for the New
River at Gum Branch and the Northeast Cape Fear near
Chinquapin, and further warnings for other rivers may be needed
in future forecast cycles.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle. The
Coastal Flood Advisories currently go until 10 PM, but with
this week being a higher tide cycle, the risk of minor coastal
flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments to the
advisories may be needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...OJC/JME
MARINE...OJC/JME
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX