033
FXUS62 KMHX 171809
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and
away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard through next week as well keeping unsettled conditions
across ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The remnants of PTC #8 are now well
inland over SC. An occluded front is draped across NC from west
to east and a surface low has formed along the periphery of
this boundary, which continues to support shower and
thunderstorm development mainly north of Highway 70. Activity
should continue to wane over the next couple of hours due to dry
air entrainment in the upper levels. With plenty of low level
moisture and weak flow, low level clouds will stick around for
the remainder of the period.

Highs will be coolest along the Northern Outer Banks where
northeasterly flow and continued showers will keep temps in the
mid 70s. The rest of the CWA will top out in the low 80s.

The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers will wane
today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Tue...Frontal boundary will shift towards the
NC/VA border overnight, and any lingering rainfall threat will
remain north of Highway 264 after sunset. Given very saturated
soils, light winds, and moist low-levels depicted by model
soundings, tonight looks ideal for widespread low stratus to
overspread the region. Lows will be slightly below average, in
the mid 60s. Farther norther and closer to the front, temps will
run a few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the
period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend.

Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough
will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast
to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the
weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the
upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff
into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast.
As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of
the feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below
average.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early
evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued
onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps
remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/...
As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The bulk of remaining shower and
thunderstorm activity is now focused over communities north of
Highway 70. We should continue to dry out through the rest of
the day, but weak winds and plentiful low-level moisture will
keep lower clouds around through the rest of the day.

There`s a good signal for fog and low stratus to develop
tonight, especially over the inner coastal plain. Given the
strong signal in the guidance, it would not be surprising for
inland terminals (PGV and OAJ) to spend at least a few hours at
IFR or LIFR between midnight and sunrise. The typically reliable
GLAMP has IFR ceiling probabilities in the 50-80% range for PGV
and 40-60% range for ISO. These terminals also have a 20-30%
chance of at least IFR visibilities. The GLAMP has terminals
closer to the coast (OAJ and EWN) at a 30-40% chance of MVFR
ceilings and a 10-30% chance of MVFR visibilities between
midnight and sunrise. However, given the weak wind field and
saturated soils, there seems to be a much greater chance at
sub-VFR conditions than what guidance is putting forth for these
areas.

Fog should subside after sunrise, but the low clouds may linger
into the late morning. All terminals should be back to VFR by
tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a
chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily
due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 420 AM Tue...Dangerous marine conditions persist offshore
as occluded front lifts northwards across the waters, currently
situated along the eastern half of Onslow Bay and well
demarcated by shower and thunderstorm activity on its eastern
edge. Synoptic winds are quickly collapsing as the pressure
gradient weakens in the wake of the parent low, and outside of
convective gusts regional winds are around 10-15 kt. Seas remain
quite high, sitting at 7-10 feet.

Winds are expected to weaken further, eventually becoming
southwesterly tonight behind the frontal boundary but holding at
10 kt or less. This will give seas plenty of room to subside,
and by sunrise on Wednesday all offshore waters are expected to
be below 6 feet. No changes were offered to existing SCA
headlines this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt
or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu.
Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt
Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas
could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 AM Tues...Bands of heavy rain continue to lift north
and east across ENC this morning, with the heaviest rainfall
currently focused across eastern Carteret and forecast to lift
northward across the Outer Banks through late this morning.
These bands have had a history of producing hourly rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. This is a bigger concern for
flash flooding south of Highway 70 where several inches of rain
have already fallen, but to the north where many spots have
failed to see an inch, the flash flooding risk will be more
marginal. Storm total amounts north of Highway 70 and the Outer
Banks still look to range between 1-2" with locally higher
amounts in stronger rain bands.

In response to the rainfall, river levels are beginning to rise
across ENC and will continue to do so through mid-week. Flood
Warnings are already posted at Chinquapin and Pollocksville, and
further warnings for other rivers may be needed in future
forecast cycles.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk through at least
one more high tide cycle this morning, and the Coastal Flood
Advisories have been extended to capture this potential. With
this week being a higher tide cycle, in general, the risk of
minor coastal flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments
to the advisories may be needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ047-203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...OJC/JME
MARINE...JME/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX