588
FXUS62 KMHX 191717
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will cross the region today producing
unsettled conditions across eastern NC. High pressure will then
build over the area over the weekend into early next week with
mostly fair weather conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 110 PM Thurs...No real changes to the forecast this
afternoon as everything is tracking relatively well. 700 mb
front is currently draped along Hwy 264 this afternoon and has
become the focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm
development. Expect this 700 mb front to continue to drag
S`wards through the evening allowing for ongoing shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity to gradually drag south as well.
Otherwise expecting mo cloudy skies today with high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

The persistent eastern upper trough will finally move east and
across eastern NC today into tonight. While the initial surface
cold front will has moved south of the area this morning,
substantial moisture will be left in it`s wake across eastern NC
today. The upper trough crossing, diurnal heating and dewpoints
around 70F will produce decent instability with MLCAPES up to
~1500 J/kg. This will result in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing across the area, especially this
afternoon into early this evening. With PW values forecast in
excess of 1.75", torrential downpours will be the main threat as
shear appears too weak to support organized severe
thunderstorms. Coverage will be greatest east of Highway 17 and
south of Highway 264. While we are not expecting widespread
flooding with this system the heaviest amounts are forecast to
occur along the immediate coast south of Hatteras, in an area
which is saturated from the heavy rains of the past 7 days. The
CAM`s are indicating local amounts of 2+" which could produce
local flooding issues along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms will be
ongoing in the early evening, especially along the coast. The
activity will begin to weaken rapidly after 00Z with the loss of
heating. Expecting any residual shower activity to dissipate
around midnight. Guidance is indicating the potential for
widespread low clouds and areas of fog to develop after midnight
as the low levels remain fairly moist. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough moves offshore
Friday and ridging starts building in through the weekend as a
low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting to
our east. Seasonable (or just below) temps through the period
and generally dry through Tuesday.

Friday:
Mid/upper level trough starts moving offshore to the east Friday
PM as high pressure starts moving in. Decreased forcing and a
drop in PWATs will bring partly cloudy skies and generally dry
conditions. Some hi-res guidance is trying to show a few
isolated showers along the coastal plain in the evening Friday,
but kept mentionable PoPs out of the forecast for now with
decreased forcing and a drop in PWATs keeping the environment
more unfavorable for precip. Low continues meandering off the
delmarva/NJ coast.

The Weekend:
Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes
over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting south,
but there is still some model uncertainty on the strength of the
low and how close to us it reaches. Regardless it will be too
far away for any substantial impacts, but it could produce gusts
of 20-25 mph for OBX and some showers along and east of hwy 17
along a shortwave. This low could also produce high swell
impacting OBX beaches. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
more information.

Monday-Wednesday:
Ridging and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. The high
over the SE starts weakening and a low trekking across the
great lakes region brings higher chances of rain to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 115 PM Thurs...Mo cloudy skies, scattered showers, and
iso tstms are currently noted across ENC this afternoon as a 700
mb front slowly tracks S`wards. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings
has overspread ENC as of this update and expect ceilings to
gradually rise as the afternoon goes on with a brief period of
VFR ceilings likely later today across all terminals. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon into early evening. Due to the isolated nature of the
thunderstorm threat, I did not feel confident enough to even
include a tempo TS risk in the TAFs so left a VCTS mention at
all sites through this afternoon. Guidance continues to hint at
a period of sub VFR ceilings and visibility after about 06Z
tonight and given the current scattered shower activity and
expected moist low levels tonight I am inclined to believe it.
So once again indicating a period of IFR ceilings/vis in the
forecast after 06Z. Expect any low clouds and patchy fog to
quickly lift Fri morning with VFR conditions returning across
all of ENC by midday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term, although Saturday morning could see some fog as skies
clear and winds calm.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...Outside of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms which will be occurring along and just
off the coast from late this afternoon into this evening,
conditions will be decent for mariners. Winds have shifted to N
~10 kt early this morning and will become NE this afternoon
while increasing to 10-15 kt. NE winds will continue 10-15 kt
tonight. Seas will be 2-4 ft through tonight across most of the
waters with higher 3-5 ft seas expected across the outer central
waters.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Sustained northerly winds increase to
10-15 kt Friday, near 15 kt Saturday, then 15-20 kt
Sunday/Monday. Winds have trended down a tad Sunday into Monday
morning, and while SCA conditions are likely, chances of gale
force winds have decreased to 10%. The strength of the winds
depends on the position and strength of the low developing
offshore to our northeast, and how strong the ridging pushing in
from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday, 3-6 ft Saturday,
4-7 ft Sunday, and 4-9 ft Monday as gusty winds + the low
offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and
coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly
swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of
these wave height ranges.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle. Coastal
Flood Advisories for all remaining oceanside coastal areas are
currently set to last through Saturday. Increased swell from a
low offshore brings overwash risks late this weekend into early
next week for OBX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RCF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX