889
FXUS62 KMHX 111100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will move across the region today
bringing scattered showers and storms. High pressure will
ridge into the area Wednesday and Thursday while an area of low
pressure meanders off the Southeast coast. The high pulls
offshore Friday with a cold front pushing across the area
Saturday. High pressure builds in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Tuesday...Patchy shallow fog continues across
portions of the coastal plain but will burn off quickly this
morning. Made minor update to temps and PoPs along the coast to
capture latest trends, otherwise forecast in good shape.

An upper trough remains across the Eastern CONUS with a stalled
front around 80-100 mi offshore and a trough of low pressure
across the central piedmont. An embedded shortwave will move
through the flow aloft around mid day which will aid in
triggering isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon. The main focus for storms will be along the sea
breeze as it migrates inland through the afternoon with greatest
chances across the Albemarle/Pamlico peninsula. Step low level
lapse rates will allow for SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg while
0-6km bulk shear will around 40-50 kt that could help develop a
few stronger storms early to mid afternoon. However, once the
upper trough axis pushes through increasing subsidence aloft
will reduce CAPE through the rest of the afternoon. Temps will
be seasonable with highs in the mid 80s and it will feel
comfortable with dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 50s
away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...The upper trough will push farther
offshore tonight while sfc high pressure builds into the area.
An isolated shower may linger into the early evening hours but
otherwise expect dry conditions overnight. Clear skies and calm
winds could allow for patchy fog development however ensemble
guidance is showing chances less than 20 percent. Lows will be
in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...
Key Points:

- Dry Wednesday-Thursday night as high pressure dominates.

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday

- Minor heat risk concerns Saturday

- Cold front moves through in the weekend

- Dry start to next week

Wednesday and Thursday... The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW downslope mid
level flow bringing drier conditions across the region. Chances for
fog Wed night and Thur night with generally clear skies and calm
winds. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, low to mid 80s
for beaches. Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday.

Further to our south, a plume of tropical moisture originating in
the Gulf of Mexico will traverse across the FL peninsula
Tuesday into Tuesday night along a shortwave. Wednesday into
Thursday the shortwave is expected to move NE`ward off the
SC/GA/FL coast, where it becomes a bit better organized and a
sfc low develops in between two areas of strong ridging.

Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
meandering off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward,
likely along the gulf stream. Most models are showing the sfc
low far enough offshore for minimal impacts. However, the most
recent (6/11 00Z) GFS run has the low closer to the Crystal
Coast and OBX Friday, resulting in higher precip chances for the
coast and more hazardous marine conditions for our nearshore
coastal waters. Saturday, temps will reach the mid 90s inland,
which combined with Tds in the mid 70s will result in minor heat
risk concerns. Current forecasted ApparentT is near 100 degrees
for inland areas south of hwy 264. A mostly dry cold front
(capped PoPs below 30%) sweeps through the region Saturday and
gives the sfc low to our east a ride off into the Atlantic.
Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick
hitting back door cold front moving in from the north allowing
Tds to briefly drop to the 60s.

Monday through Tuesday... Strong ridging brings clear skies and
temps getting progressively warmer through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Tuesday...Patchy shallow fog will burn off quickly
this morning. METARs have reported vsbys bouncing between MVFR
and LIFR but looking at area webcams the fog is quite shallow
and likely having very little impact to operation. Pred VFR
expected through the rest of the TAF period. However, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon could
bring occasional sub-VFR conditions. Highest chances for storms
will be across northern rtes. Clear skies and calm winds will
bring good radiational cooling conditions but ensemble based
guidance showing probs for fog tonight less than 20%.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure dominating Wednesday-
Thursday will bring a period of calm winds and clear/mostly
clear skies overnight Wednesday night- Thursday night. This
increases the potential for sub-VFR conditions due to fog,
particularly during the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...A cold front remains stalled around 80-100
mi offshore while a trough of low pressure remains across the
central piedmont. Good boating conditions are expected through
the short term with variable winds generally less than 15 kt
with seas around 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Long term starts off benign, with waves 2-3
ft and easterly winds generally gusting below 15 kts through
Thursday. Friday through the weekend we have a lot of
uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low
developing off the SE coast over the next 24 hours progresses.
Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through
Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters
or strengthens substantially, but confidence remains too low at
this point. Early next week pleasant boating conditions return,
with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high
pressure dominates.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ