884
FXUS62 KMHX 130053
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
853 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area through Thursday while
an area of low pressure meanders off the Southeast coast. The
high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A
cold front will push across the area Saturday with high
pressure building into the region in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Quiet early
summer weather to persist as high pressure will continue to
ridge in from the NE tonight as waves of low pressure develop
along a stalled front off the SE coast and FL. The models are in
good agreement that mid and high clouds will be on the increase
overnight as a weak southern stream mid level trough moves east
tonight and Thu. Fog potential still looks low (href probs less
than 10%) due to the aforementioned increasing mid and high
clouds despite light/calm winds and increasing dewpoints. Lows
expected in the mid 60s inland to around 70 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wed...High pressure will continue to ridge in from
the NE as weak sfc low begins to develop and strengthen along
the SE coast. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance,
currently low probabilities of tropical development during the
next 48 hrs. Low pressure will grad lift NE along a stalled
front with moisture spreading northward. Best moisture will stay
offshore, keeping the area mostly dry, except with potential
for a few iso showers over the coastal waters late. With
potential for bkn mid and high clouds and easterly flow through
the day, went towards cooler temps along the coast (low to mid
80s) and near climo inland (mid to upper 80s).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday bringing
slight chances (10-20%) of rain along the coast

- Mostly dry cold front moves through in the weekend

- Dry start to next week

Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward, likely
along the gulf stream. Decent model spread exists on the exact
location of the low as it approaches ENC. Most likely outcome is the
center of the low remains around 200 miles offshore as it passes to
our east. This outcome would result in minimal impacts for ENC. It
is worth noting that some ensemble members, and the most recent SREF
run show an approach closer to the coast Friday into Saturday. If
this scenario plays out, we would be looking at hazardous marine
conditions, gusty conditions, and rain, of which highest chances
would be for the coast. Trough and associated cold front which
initially looked to be moving through mid day Saturday has sped up a
bit, and will now be moving through early Saturday morning. While
likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low along,
making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts from the low
relatively short-lived. A consequence of the earlier frontal passage
is a reduced heat risk. Friday now looks to be a tad bit warmer than
Saturday, with apparent temperatures in the mid 90s.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday allowing Tds
to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s.

Monday through Wednesday... Strong ridging brings generally clear
skies and warm temps in the low to mid 90s inland through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 610 PM Wed...Pred VFR with light winds expected through
the TAF period. Sct-Bkn diurnal cu late today with cigs around
5-6 kft will dissipate with the loss of heating early this
evening. Increasing mid and high clouds overnight should limit
any fog threat. HREF guidance showing chances for fog at less
than 10 percent though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog with
light to calm winds and increasing dewpoints. Expect to see
diurnal cumulus with VFR ceilings redevelop again Thu afternoon
with heating.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well
offshore Friday- Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain
chances and lower ceilings would become more favorable.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 850 PM Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs
show E winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will
continue to ridge in from the NE into Thu, as low pressure over
FL begins to move off the SE coast. E-ESE winds 5-15 kt continue
overnight. Increasing easterly flow Thursday as low pressure
begins to lift along the SE coast. Increased winds slightly from
the previous forecast, mainly south of Hatteras where gradient
will be stronger. E winds 15-20 kt south of Hatteras and 5-15 kt
north. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible over the outer
southern waters Thu, but right now the risk looks to low for any
SCAs. Seas 2-4 ft will build to 3-5 ft, highest south of
Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Friday through the weekend we have a lot
of uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc
low developing off the SE coast over the next 12-24 hours
progresses. Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists
Friday through Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our
nearshore waters, but confidence remains low at this point. Most
likely outcome is the center of the low remains about 200 miles
offshore along the Gulf Stream. Cold front moves through early
Saturday, pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary
back door cold front moving through will then move through later
Saturday. This sequence of events will result in rapid wind
changes, and brief periods of gusty conditions right along and
behind the fronts. Early next week pleasant boating conditions
return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as
high pressure dominates.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/CQD/RJ
MARINE...JME/CQD/RJ