045
FXUS62 KMHX 171140
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
740 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and
away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern
Seaboard through next week as well keeping unsettled conditions
across ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 735 AM Tue...Dry air continues to get entrained over
central and eastern NC this morning as the surface low continues
to wobble westward. A few spotty showers will continue to linger
across areas west of Highway 17 this morning, but bulk of the
activity is now focused to the east and will continue to lift
northward through the morning hours. Threat for flash flooding
continues with strongest band still producing rainfall rates of
around 2 inches an hour over Hyde County. Given the waning rain
threat for our southern FA, the Flood Watch there has been
cancelled.

Drying quickly sets in behind the front, but low clouds will
linger as low levels remain saturated. The exception will be
along the southern coast where driest air will be entrained,
leading to breaks and some sun. Did drop highs a few degrees
from the previous forecast, favoring temperatures in the upper
70s to around 80.

The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers wanes
today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Tue...Frontal boundary will shift towards the NC/VA
border overnight, and any lingering rainfall threat will remain
north of Highway 264 after sunset. Given very saturated soils,
light winds, and moist low-levels depicted by model soundings,
tonight looks ideal for widespread low stratus to overspread the
region. Lows will be slightly below average, in the mid 60s.
Farther norther and closer to the front, temps will run a few
degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the
period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend.

Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough
will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast
to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the
weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the
upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff
into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast.
As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of
the feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below
average.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early
evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued
onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps
remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/...
As of 740 AM Tuesday...Low pressure is wobbling westward towards
the Appalachians this morning, with bulk of shower activity now
displaced east and north of EWN. Shower threat will continue to
decrease through the day as dry air continues to be entrained
over central and eastern NC. Low level moisture will be slow to
exit, and cigs will struggle to rise beyond MVFR across the
coastal plain. Closer to the coast, there may be some breaks in
the cloud and some brief VFR.

Conditions still look favorable for low stratus and low
visibilities overnight, especially across the coastal plain, as
wind fields collapse but low- levels remain heavily saturated.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a
chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily
due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 420 AM Tue...Dangerous marine conditions persist offshore
as occluded front lifts northwards across the waters, currently
situated along the eastern half of Onslow Bay and well
demarcated by shower and thunderstorm activity on its eastern
edge. Synoptic winds are quickly collapsing as the pressure
gradient weakens in the wake of the parent low, and outside of
convective gusts regional winds are around 10-15 kt. Seas remain
quite high, sitting at 7-10 feet.

Winds are expected to weaken further, eventually becoming
southwesterly tonight behind the frontal boundary but holding at
10 kt or less. This will give seas plenty of room to subside,
and by sunrise on Wednesday all offshore waters are expected to
be below 6 feet. No changes were offered to existing SCA
headlines this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt
or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu.
Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt
Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas
could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 AM Tues...Bands of heavy rain continue to lift north
and east across ENC this morning, with the heaviest rainfall
currently focused across eastern Carteret and forecast to lift
northward across the Outer Banks through late this morning.
These bands have had a history of producing hourly rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. This is a bigger concern for
flash flooding south of Highway 70 where several inches of rain
have already fallen, but to the north where many spots have
failed to see an inch, the flash flooding risk will be more
marginal. Storm total amounts north of Highway 70 and the Outer
Banks still look to range between 1-2" with locally higher
amounts in stronger rain bands.

In response to the rainfall, river levels are beginning to rise
across ENC and will continue to do so through mid-week. Flood
Warnings are already posted at Chinquapin and Pollocksville, and
further warnings for other rivers may be needed in future
forecast cycles.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk through at least
one more high tide cycle this morning, and the Coastal Flood
Advisories have been extended to capture this potential. With
this week being a higher tide cycle, in general, the risk of
minor coastal flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments
to the advisories may be needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX