035
FXUS62 KMHX 062002
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A
strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move
through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this
weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1540 Thursday...Very warm and humid afternoon with temps
in the upper 80s/low 90s and Tds in the low to mid 70s. In
addition to driving heat indices ~100 degrees, instability on
this morning`s sounding had in excess of 2kJ/kg, and this is
only expected to increase through the afternoon. With heights
continuing to gradually fall with the approaching shortwave
trough, airmass will be increasingly supportive of convective
development this afternoon.

Guidance continues to throw increasingly cold water on the idea
of convection developing along the sea breeze this afternoon,
possibly owing to stabilization thanks to this morning`s shower
activity. Still think there is a primarily isolated threat of
showers and maybe a storm here, and continued to carry a slight
chance PoP for the rest of the afternoon. The primary focal
point of storms will be ahead of the main front itself, where
more organized convective clusters are likely with better
dynamics associated with the shortwave trough. These storms will
approach the coastal plain from the W early this evening.
Outflow boundary interactions between storms will potentially
fuel additional isolated cell development ahead of this feature.
Forecast bulk shear over our area is not expected to exceed 20
kt with minimal turning, which points to a very low risk of
organized severe storms. Still, with this unstable of an airmass
a few isolated strong cells capable of microbursts are
possible. Torrential rainfall is also a threat given PWATs near
2" areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions, the risk of flash
flooding is low outside of typically vulnerable (low-lying and
urban) locations.

Cold front will continue to approach the area overnight.
Convective clusters associated with the front will likely be
ongoing although instability will be waning through the
overnight hours. CAMs point to this cluster of activity pushing
off the coast of the Outer Banks overnight. Once the main cold
front begins to cross into the coastal plain early Friday
morning, one last broken band of frontally-forced showers and a
few thunderstorms are likely to develop with CAMS favoring this
activity grazing the Crystal Coast and offshore locations in the
pre-dawn hours. A severe risk is not anticipated with this
activity, although the threat of torrential rainfall will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 1545 Thursday....The front will move through the Coastal
Plain through the day Friday, finally pushing offshore Friday
evening in conjunction with the shortwave trough axis aloft
swinging through. Expect showers associated with the prefrontal
trough to be all offshore during the morning. Isolated showers
and storms become possible again for areas along the coast in
the afternoon. The seabreeze is expected to remain pinned to
the coast by Werly winds in the afternoon and weak boundary in
the vicinity could lead to enough convergence to warrant
carrying SChc PoPs. Slightly cooler Ts than Thurs with markedly
lower Tds sinking into the low 60s, maybe even mid to upper 50s,
behind the front. Highs in the upper 80s away from the immediate
coast.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 PM Thu...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend. Another front will likely push through
Sunday night and early Monday, bringing threat for sct showers
and storms.

Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more
comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints
falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and
80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading
into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much
better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move
through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances
for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over
the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and
potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon
through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through early Friday/...
As of 1320 Thursday...Predominant VFR conditions through the
rest of the daytime hours. Thinking on convective forecast has
evolved since the prior forecast. Crystal Coast afternoon threat
is still present, but confidence in this scenario has dropped
with newest hi-res guidance now keeping area completely dry
until 23-00z. Main focus for possibility of subVFR flight cats
remains on clusters of cells developing ahead of the main cold
front, encroaching on the coastal plain early this evening.
Primary threat window is 23-00z to around 04-05z, although a
renewed round of development along the coast overnight will
extend the threat for OAJ until 08-09z. A few stronger storms
cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of a line
from HSE- EWN- GWW. Breezy S-SWerly winds this afternoon and
evening with gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to
25 kt possible across the inner coastal plain. Once the storms
pass through, the front will begin to push through the area
turning winds more Werly with some clearing from W to E. Lower
CIGs linger in the early morning hours offshore and along the
coast, but are expected to remain E of the coastal TAF sites.
VFR flight cats forecast for Friday with some afternoon
showers/storms possible along the seabreeze which will be pinned
to the coast. Werly flow aloft will push any storms that do pop
up will be blown toward the coast and offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1545 Thursday...Deteriorating boating conditions expected
over area waters today ahead of an approaching cold front
currently entering the Wern reaches of NC. Regional
observations show widespread SWerly winds of 15-20G25kts with
the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound where the thermal
gradient is strongest. Offshore, seas have slowly built to 3-4
feet in response.

As cold front approaches area waters tonight, pressure gradient
will tighten further with more widespread SWerly winds of 20-25
kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound.
Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to ease
after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal plain.
Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching up to
6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond 10-15
nm.

SCA headlines were adjusted to acct for latest wind forecast.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Thursday...The cold front will move through Friday
and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another
cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday
evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and
cont through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...CQD/CEB
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB