Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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869 FXUS62 KMHX 090536 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 136 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front this morning. Another front will move through Sunday night into early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 10 PM Saturday...Overnight temps have been lowered a few degrees to follow the trend in obs. Given that the afternoon dew points were in the low- to mid-50s across the coastal plain, there`s room for lows to drop below the current forecast (low-60s). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 1500 Saturday...An attendant cold front will approach the area Sunday with gradients tightening bringing increasing WAA in SW flow allowing temps to warm into the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 60s inland coinciding with warmest temps. Dewpoints along the coast will be in the upper 60s to around 70 but temps will be a few degrees cooler leading to similar heat indices as inland areas. Rain chances will be minimal on Sunday with broad subsidence and warm temps aloft limiting CAPE across the region but some iso showers working from W to E ahead of the approaching front Sunday evening cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Storm chances increase Sunday night through Tuesday with seasonably warm temps as a weak cold front pushes through and upper troughing develops over the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging build in Wednesday and Thursday bringing drier conditions and a warming trend. An upper trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week but uncertainty remains with how much Gulf moisture the system will be able to tap into. Sunday Evening through Tuesday night...Near zonal flow aloft across ENC on Sunday but an upper low will track north of the Great Lakes and across southern Canada with an upper trough developing across the Eastern CONUS early to mid next week. Precip chances increase Sunday evening as jet dynamics improve with upper trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic and the cold front pushes across the region. Guidance is showing scattered coverage and will keep PoPs in the Chc-LKLY range Sunday night. A positively tilted upper trough will dig across the Eastern CONUS Monday into Tuesday with embedded shortwave energy moving trough the flow aloft providing opportunities for additional showers and storms. Timing of the individual waves remains uncertain and generally followed NBM guidance for PoPs early next week. Temps will be several degrees cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 80s and low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a much drier airmass will build in with dewpoints dropping in to the mid 50s across the coastal plain and low to mid 60s along the coast making for comfortable temps. Wednesday through Friday...The upper trough axis pushes offshore Wednesday with shortwave ridging building in with mid level flow becoming zonal on Thursday. Precip chances will be lower but cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours along the sea breeze as it pushes inland. A northern stream shortwave pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-Atlantic late in the week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf moisture and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether upper ridging over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture to our south and west. A warming trend is expected late week with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with lower 90s expected as we end the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/... As of 135 AM Sun...VFR conditions prevail over the area this morning with light southerly winds in response to a surface trough draped across central NC/VA. Scattered mid and high level clouds will persist through today, with clouds slowly lowering through the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will gust to 15-20 kt in the afternoon, with the highest gusts over the inner coastal plain. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the front after 00z. A few storms could be strong, with gusty winds being the primary risk. LONG TERM /Late Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon night into Tue with sct showers and storms. Mainly VFR expected Wednesday as high pressure builds in. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 1500 Saturday...Quiet marine conditions expected today as high pressure weakly builds in behind the departing cold front. Wind fields today will be dominated by sound and sea breeze circulations, but speeds will stay below 15 kt. By tonight, sharpening surface trough over the mid-Atlantic will cause winds to veer south to southwesterly overnight at around 10-15 kt. Seas through the period will remain at 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts, but have opted not to go with an SCA just yet. With how marginal the gusts are, I want to give the midnight shift one more chance to look at another rd of HiRes guidance before issuing anything. Seas 2-3 ft Sunday building to 2-5 ft Sunday evening. Winds diminish Monday but another front and low pressure area may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency, confidence remains low through mid week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/MS MARINE...SK/CEB