875
FXUS62 KMHX 062358
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
758 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A
strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move
through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this
weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...Very warm and humid evening with temps
in the upper 80s inland, upper 70s along the coast and Tds in
the low to mid 70s. Unstable air mass is in place, with fcst
MLCAPE of >2kJ/kg and the approaching shortwave trough adding
some better upper level forcing to the mix. This will result in
an airmass increasingly supportive of convective development
through the evening into tonight. Typically instability quickly
drops off after sunset, but the organized nature of the forcing
could allow for storms to continue through midnight before
beginning to taper off in coverage and intensity.


The primary focal point of storms will be ahead of the main
front itself, where more organized convective clusters are
likely with better dynamics associated with the shortwave
trough. These storms have entered the coastal plain from the W
early this evening. Outflow boundary interactions between storms
will potentially fuel additional isolated cell development
ahead of this feature. Forecast bulk shear over our area is not
expected to exceed 20 kt with minimal turning, which points to a
very low risk of organized severe storms. Still, with this
unstable of an airmass a few isolated strong cells capable of
microbursts are possible. Torrential rainfall is also a threat
given PWATs near 2" areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions,
the risk of flash flooding is low outside of typically
vulnerable (low-lying and urban) locations.

Cold front will continue to approach the area overnight.
Convective clusters associated with the front will likely be
ongoing although instability will be waning through the
overnight hours. CAMs point to this cluster of activity pushing
off the coast of the Outer Banks overnight. Once the main cold
front begins to cross into the coastal plain early Friday
morning, one last broken band of frontally-forced showers and a
few thunderstorms are likely to develop with CAMS favoring this
activity grazing the Crystal Coast and offshore locations in the
pre-dawn hours. Low-end severe risk is possible with this
activity, although the threat of torrential rainfall will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 1545 Thursday....The front will
move through the Coastal Plain through the day Friday, finally
pushing offshore Friday evening in conjunction with the
shortwave trough axis aloft swinging through. Expect showers
associated with the prefrontal trough to be all offshore during
the morning. Isolated showers and storms become possible again
for areas along the coast in the afternoon. The seabreeze is
expected to remain pinned to the coast by Werly winds in the
afternoon and weak boundary in the vicinity could lead to enough
convergence to warrant carrying SChc PoPs. Slightly cooler Ts
than Thurs with markedly lower Tds sinking into the low 60s,
maybe even mid to upper 50s, behind the front. Highs in the
upper 80s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 PM Thu...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend. Another front will likely push through
Sunday night and early Monday, bringing threat for sct showers
and storms.

Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more
comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints
falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and
80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading
into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much
better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move
through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances
for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over
the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and
potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon
through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...Generally VFR outside of thunderstorm
impacts through the short term. Main focus for possibility of
subVFR flight cats remains on clusters of cells developing ahead
of the main cold front, encroaching on the coastal plain early
this evening. Primary threat window is 23-00z to around 04-05z,
although a renewed round of development along the coast
overnight will extend the threat for OAJ and EWN until 08-09z. A
few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially for any
activity north of a line from HSE- EWN- GWW. Once the storms
pass through, the front will begin to push through the area
turning winds more Werly with some clearing from W to E. Lower
CIGs linger in the early morning hours offshore and along the
coast, but are expected to remain E of the coastal TAF sites.
VFR flight cats forecast for Friday with some afternoon
showers/storms possible along the seabreeze which will be pinned
to the coast. Werly flow aloft will push any storms that do pop
up will be blown toward the coast and offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...SW Gusts of 25-30kt continue for Pamlico
Sound and nearshore OBX where the thermal gradient is the
strongest. Winds are trending a bit lower Friday morning, and as
a result the SCA`s currently out might have to be cancelled a
few hours earlier than planned. Not enough confidence at this
point to change the end times, but it is something worth keeping
an eye on.

Previous Discussion...As of 1545 Thursday...Deteriorating
boating conditions expected over area waters today ahead of an
approaching cold front currently entering the Wern reaches of
NC. Regional observations show widespread SWerly winds of
15-20G25kts with the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound
where the thermal gradient is strongest. Offshore, seas have
slowly built to 3-4 feet in response.

As cold front approaches area waters tonight, pressure gradient
will tighten further with more widespread SWerly winds of 20-25
kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound.
Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to ease
after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal plain.
Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching up to
6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond 10-15
nm.

SCA headlines were adjusted to acct for latest wind forecast.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Thursday...The cold front will move through Friday
and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another
cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday
evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and
cont through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ