905
FXUS62 KMHX 140115
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area through tonight while an
area of low pressure moves northeast off the Southeast coast. The
high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting well off of the
coast. A cold front will push across the area Saturday with
high pressure building into the region in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Latest
analysis shows weak low pressure off the FL Atlantic coast with
high pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic from the NE. High
will continue to push offshore tonight as low lifts
northeastward. NHC continues to monitor this disturbance,
currently with low probabilities of tropical development during
the next 48 hrs. Sct showers and iso tstms continue to develop
well offshore this evening. As the low lifts NE tonight and
moisture spreads northward, expect iso to scattered showers to
spread towards the immediate NC coast, with highest chances for
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where we will maintain chance
pops. Instability will creep upwards through the overnight, and
esp towards daybreak, and will continue slight chance thunder
mentions along the immediate coast, with most of the thunder
threat remaining offshore. Warm tonight, with lows ranging from
the mid 60s inland to low 70s for the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward
along the Gulf Stream Friday. Still some uncertainty with exact
track, but still looks like the center of the low will remain
100-200 miles offshore as it passes to our east. This outcome
would result in minimal impacts for ENC. Scattered showers and
iso thunderstorm expected, with greatest coverage along the
immediate coast through mid day. Low level thickness values and
NE flow support highs in the 80s for the beaches and climbing
into the low 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast through Saturday
  bringing chances (20-30%) of rain along the coast

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Friday night through Sunday...Complicated setup in store, with
a weak low trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front
sweeping through the region. Trough and associated cold front
will be moving through overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
While likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low
along, making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts
from the low relatively short- lived. Saturday afternoon
guidance is keying in on isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven, and Carteret Counties
along the sea breeze. Handled this with a 15-20% PoP (Schc)
between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night
allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this
boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up,
but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm
formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm
weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 550 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions with light winds
expected through the TAF period. Sct cu and broken high clouds
continue across the area late today. Similar to this morning,
signal for widespread fog development is low given high
cloudiness...however it is possible for shallow, patchy fog,
especially at EWN with light onshore winds. Shower threat
expected to remain mostly east of the terminals tonight into
Friday as low pressure moves well offshore.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well
offshore Friday night- Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain
chances and lower ceilings would become more favorable.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 915 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Latest obs
show E winds 5-10 kt and seas 2-3 ft north of Hatteras and 10-20
kt south with 3-5 ft seas. Low pressure off the FL coast will
continue to grad strengthen, lifting NE off the SE coast
tonight. Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward along the
Gulf Stream Friday. Still some uncertainty with exact track, but
still looks like the center of the low will remain 100-200
miles offshore as it passes well to our east. Main change was to
increase winds slightly for Fri. Winds will back, becoming E-NE
10-20 kt Friday with seas 3-5 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
At this time expect conditions to remain sub SCA. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through mid
day Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Through the weekend we have a lot of
uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low
developing off the SE coast progresses. Potential for SCA gusts
and elevated seas exists through Sunday if the sfc low
approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence
remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of
the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to
the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving
through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of
events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of
gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Next week
pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE
winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/CQD/RJ
MARINE...JME/CQD/RJ