792
FXUS62 KMHX 220543
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
143 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal troughing continues through Sunday, while high pressure
shifts offshore over the weekend, continuing into the upcoming
week. A front approaches on Monday, with another front affecting
the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Fri...No significant changes to the forecast on
this update. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight
with a threat for patchy fog development later this evening.

Prev Disc...Diurnal iso/sct showers will end by early
evening, with quiet/warm/muggy conditions tonight. Main
challenge tonight will be fog coverage and density tonight. HREF
cont a 20-40% chance of more impactful fog developing (<1/2
mile), and this will be something we`ll continue to monitor in
later forecasts. For now, have patchy fog mentioned generally
west of Hwy 17. Used persistence from last night`s fog,
affecting the swrn counties the hardest. If more of a low
stratus deck develops instead, this would tend to limit the
dense fog potential.

A renegade offshore shower may migrate onshore, esp late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Similar synoptic setup for Sat expected, with
some iso/sct coastal showers developing in the morning and
migrating inland through the day. Think that areas north of Hwy
70 will remain mainly dry once again. No thunder fcst once
again, as forcing is very weak and not much upper support
despite some decent instability vals. Warm and humid with highs
in the mid 90s northwest, to low 90s elsewhere inland, and 80s
coast. Heat indices will not be an issue, and generally remain
at 100 or lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...

Sunday...Surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to
travel east, which will put ENC under southwesterly flow and
start a warming and moistening trend. Along the east coast,
coastal troughing will develop and last through the weekend. The
main lacking ingredient for a much needed widespread rainfall
event is instability, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm
activity will likely develop along the seabreeze. Of more
concern is the oppressive heat, especially on Sunday, when
"feels like" temperatures are expected to reach 100-105F.

Monday-Friday...We`ll remain mostly under southerly flow, which
will pump in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and
increase humidity to uncomfortable levels. Diurnal PoPs are in
the forecast each day but better chances will be on Monday and
Thursday due to a series of frontal passages. The main points of
focus for the coming week will be triple digit "feels like"
temperatures and the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms on Monday.

 - Dangerous Heat: With increasing heat and humidity, heat
   indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each day this
   week. This raises concern for heat related illnesses for
   those spending time outdoors. No heat headlines are in place
   as of now, but trends will be monitored.

 - Monday Storms: Instability and deep layer shear look to be
   plentiful across the area. If this holds, some strong to
   severe storms are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

 - IFR/MVFR VIS likely overnight (60-80% chance)

 - Daytime SHRA risk Saturday (10-30% chance)

In the very near-term (ie. through 12z Saturday), the main
forecast challenge will be the MIFG/BR/FG potential. Recent
satellite imagery shows some low clouds or fog attempting to
develop, but thus far, nothing appears widespread. Meanwhile,
surface obs have reported IFR, or lower, conditions at times.
Based on webcams and satellite, it appears the reduced VIS is
due to shallow fog (MIFG). Through the night, however, it`s
possible that some depth to the fog could be realized, and we`ll
be closely monitoring this in case a more impactful period of
FG develops. For now, I`ve leaned towards more of a MIFG type of
scenario. During the day Saturday, heating of a moist airmass
will probably allow isolated to widely scattered SHRA to develop
(similar to yesterday). The coverage is expected to be too
minimal for a mention in the TAFs. However, reduced VIS will be
a risk with any SHRA that develops. The TSRA risk isn`t zero
today, but Saturday`s setup isn`t all that favorable for TSRA.
By Saturday evening, the SHRA risk looks to shift back offshore.
Similar to the next few hours, Saturday night looks to support
another round of shallow fog.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...SHRA and TSRA development are possible each
day along the seabreeze. Monday will present the best
opportunity for sub- VFR conditions given an environment that
could support strong to marginally severe storms. Winds will
generally be SW with 20 kt gusts possible late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Shra will cont to dot the srn coastal waters
through tonight into Sun as weak tropical disturbance well to
the south ambles near the GA coast. Winds will be light srly
tonight generally around 10 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Winds pick up on Sat as thermal gradient tightens and high pres
shifts further offshore, with speeds of 10-20 kt by later in the
afternoon. Seas will cont around 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Sub- SCA conditions will persist until
Sunday when SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.
Seas will be 2-3 ft on Saturday and build to 3-5 by later
Sunday. The new week will continue similar conditions with gusts
possibly dipping just below SCA criteria. Conditions improve
Tuesday after a cold front passes through, which will generate
variable winds at 10 kt or less and 3-4 ft seas diminishing to
2-3 ft. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each
day but Monday presents the best chance for some to be stronger
to marginally severe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3 PM Fri...A coastal trough will continue through Sunday,
with higher RH and some isolated to scattered showers for
coastal counties. Inland, it will cont hot and dry through the
weekend, with lower RH. Winds will be southerly on Saturday,
then increase on Sunday and become gusty with speeds up to 20
mph. RH will steadily increase each day as well, with minimum RH
values in the 40s and 50s. Despite the increasing RH, fine
fuels remain very dry thanks to a lack of appreciable rainfall
of late, and this will overlap with breezy conditions on Sunday,
potentially supporting elevated fire concerns.

For the area at large, the better chance of wetting rainfall
comes Monday. From a climatology standpoint, the recent stretch
of dry weather is noteworthy. For most of Eastern NC, it`s been
at least 2 weeks since the last wetting rainfall. For a deeper
rainfall (ie. 0.25" or more), it`s been almost a month for most
of the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX