472
FXUS63 KMKX 100835
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
335 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a chance for thunderstorms at times Tuesday
  evening through Thursday and again later this weekend into
  early next week.

- Warmer and more humid conditions are likely mid-week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today through Tuesday:

High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest today
into tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. Winds will be
lighter today as well, but will still be a bit breezy out of the
north. Though plenty of sunshine is expected, a cooler airmass
behind the departed trough/front will result in below normal
high temps today. Coolest temps will be in the east due to
onshore winds this afternoon. Lows tonight will be on the cool
side, with 40s expected most places.

Winds will become southerly Tuesday as the high departs to the
east ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This will help
temps to recover back towards normal values, though likely
falling short by a couple/few degrees. Mostly sunny skies early
in the day will give way to increasing clouds from the west as
the trough approaches. Showers will be possible late afternoon
and into the evening as the trough swings through. Kept shower
chances on the lower end for now (up to 40%), as it will take
time for deeper saturation to occur given the drier airmass in
place early Tuesday. Could be a few rumbles of thunder as
moisture and instability tick up a bit just ahead of the trough.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Wednesday through Sunday:

The flow aloft will turn zonal mid-week, with even a slight
hint at an upper level ridge sneaking into the area. This will
allow for a warmer and more humid airmass to push into southern
Wisconsin Wednesday into Thursday. At the surface, a weak area
of high pressure will build in Wednesday behind departing low
pressure, with mostly sunny skies likely. Still watching the
potential for upstream showers and storms Wednesday to slide
into the area Wednesday night. Some uncertainty remains with how
much this activity will hold together by the time it gets here,
so kept precip chances under 50 percent. Precip chances
Thursday will depend on how quickly the any remaining
showers/storms and clouds clear out of the area and also where
the effective boundary will be by the afternoon hours. Latest
deterministic model runs are all hinting that much of the
activity Thursday may end up being south of the state line, but
plenty of time for these finer details to change given we`re
still a few days out.

It looks mainly dry Friday and Saturday as surface high
pressure builds back into the area behind the departing trough.
Northwest flow aloft between the trough to the east and a ridge
building in from the southwest will likely result in somewhat
cooler temps for the end of the week, probably right around
normal for mid-June. Warmer temps are then expected to return
Sunday as the upper ridge builds into the area. May also see a
return of shower/storm chances as a shortwave moves through the
top of the ridge.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Clouds continue to move out early this morning, with mostly
clear skies expected today and tonight as high pressure builds
in from the northwest. Northerly winds will remain on the
breezy side today, gradually easing later today into tonight as
the high moves overhead. Winds will likely be more from the
northeast than north by this afternoon near the lake.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Breezy northerly winds this morning will gradually become
lighter later today into tonight as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Winds will become southerly on Tuesday as
the high moves eastward ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure. South to southwest winds will then hang on through at
least Wednesday, eventually becoming northerly by the end of the
week behind a trough and ahead of an approaching area of high
pressure.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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