111
FXUS63 KMKX 081950
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers are likely through the afternoon with a small
  chance of thunder

- Breezy northwest winds expected on Sunday

- Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday
  through the remainder of the week


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

As the shortwave and better jet dynamics begin to move east out
of the state, the last of the rain showers are starting to come
to an end from the northwest to the southeast. The window for
any rumbles of thunder is quickly closing as well. As the last
of the rain showers begins to pull out of the area this
afternoon, skies are quickly starting to clear. West central
Wisconsin is already starting to see the partly cloudy skies.
With the skies starting to clear a bit earlier than initially
anticipated, much of southern Wisconsin will get a chance to see
the sun by this evening. With the clearing and weakening winds
expected tonight, there is a small chance (15-20%) that fog
begins to develop tonight. Dewpoints will be on the higher side
in the upper 40s to low 50s due in part to the rainfall we
received earlier today. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight
and are expected to be around 5 mph. Low lying areas and areas
sheltered from the wind will have the best chance for any fog to
develop.

Sunday looks dry for southern Wisconsin. The state will be under
some board cyclonic flow again which will give us some large
scale ascent, however there will be a lack of available
moisture. Soundings remain pretty dry which will make it hard
to get clouds let alone rain. Breezy northwest winds will set up
as diurnal mixing increases and the pressure gradient briefly
tightens again.

High pressure will begin to slowly build in from the Northern
Plains Monday, which will gradually cause the winds to weaken
throughout the day and will keep conditions dry. Temperatures
should be near normal to just slightly below normal for both
Sunday and Monday.


Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Ridging in place for the start of the work week will keep conditions
dry and quiet for Monday and much of the day Tuesday. The rest
of the extended forecast has multiple shortwaves and troughs
move through the flow bring some low chance POPs into the
forecast. The first chance for some low end POPs around 20-25%
or less is Tuesday. A quick moving trough is expected to swing
through the Northern Great Lakes and Canada late Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning. The better lift will be further north
which leaves southern Wisconsin more on the fringe of this
system. An associated frontal boundary will potentially swing
through the CWA which would bring the best potential for any
forcing for some showers and a chance (roughly 20%) of some
thunder.

The next troughs and shortwaves to approach the Great Lakes Region
will be quickly on the heels of the first bringing additional rain
chances late Wednesday and Thursday through Friday. Extended
guidance has discrepancies on the tracks of these shortwaves
and troughs which has resulted in wide areas of low chance POPs
(25% or less) for much of the state. Most of the discrepancies
can be linked back to the synoptic pattern which brings more
zonal flow to the Midwest. The zonal flow looks to stick around
into the weekend. This pattern will also be a big promoter of a
gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing into the 80s
for a couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

IFR to VFR conditions are expected over the next couple of hours
across southern Wisconsin. Ceilings around 1-2kft have moved in
with the remaining rain showers across south central and
southeastern Wisconsin. The last of the rain showers are moving
east south east out of the forecast area. The cloud deck is
starting to clear behind the last of the showers leading to
partly cloudy skies. Despite the clearing, cloud decks will
remain low for the next couple of hours. Clouds will eventual
clear later this evening into tonight. Mostly Clear skies will
remain through Sunday afternoon. There is a potential for some
fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds weaken. Low
lying areas and those sheltered from the wind will have the best
chances for some fog to develop. Any fog that develops could
drop visibilities to 2-4 SM.

Northerly winds this afternoon will weaken overnight and become
northwest to west. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected
Sunday afternoon.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Across the northern half of the lake west to southwest winds
persist. A frontal boundary moving across the southern half of
the lake give a northerly component to the wind. Tonight light
westerly winds will set up across the entire lake prior to
breezy northwest winds kicking in Sunday. The tighter pressure
gradient will be due to high pressure around 30.2 inches over
the Northern Plains and Low pressure of 29.4 inches east of
James bay. Both features will move eastward Sunday into Monday.
As the high pressure builds into the state Monday night lighter
winds are expected. Southerly winds are expected to pick up
Tuesday behind the exciting high pressure.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the breeze northwest to
west wind Sunday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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