Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
929 FXUS63 KMKX 260931 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered storms for Friday and Friday night. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. - River flooding and high water levels will continue this week and into this weekend. - Moderate Swim Risk for Lake MI beaches late today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Today through Thursday: High based light showers or sprinkles will continue across the area this morning via mid level frontogenesis ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from nrn MN. At the surface a n-s sfc trough will shift swd across the area this afternoon with increasing cold advection. A shift of nwly winds to nely winds is expected at the lake first then farther inland through the evening. Nwly flow aloft will then prevail through Thu with sfc high pressure arriving late tonight then gradually ewd on Thu. Temps will cool into the 50s tnt with pleasant highs in the lower to middle 70s for Thu. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thursday night through Tuesday: High pressure will move to the lower Great Lakes Thu nt while a sfc trough moves across the Great Plains. Sely winds will increase along with cloud cover but pcpn is expected to hold off until Fri. A well organized upper trough will then track from the high plains of MT to the Lake Superior region from Fri into Sat. A sfc low will track ahead of it with its warm front approaching and moving into srn WI Fri afternoon and night. A good surge of low to mid level warm, moist advection and PWs approaching 2 inches will bring widespread showers and a few storms for Fri- Fri nt. However, due to poor lapse rates any meaningful elevated or sfc based CAPE comes after much of the pcpn occurs. The cold frontal passage will then occur Sat AM but convective development will be spotty and probably more widespread over IL. Rainfall amounts are currently expected to remain below 1 inch. Nwly winds and cold advection to then take hold late Sat into early Sun with high pressure approaching late in the day. A relatively cool and pleasant day is expected for Sun. Another round of cyclogenesis will then occur across the nrn Great Plains into Ontario for Mon nt-Tue with more warm frontal pcpn expected over srn WI. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions today and tonight with the exception of fog in the WI River valley and other low lying areas for early Thursday morning. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Winds will increase a bit over Lake Michigan today with the passage of a cold front. Light westerly winds over southern Lake Michigan early this morning will become modest northwest winds later this morning, then northerly for the afternoon. Over the north half, light northwest winds early this morning will become modest northerly winds later this morning. The modest northerly winds will continue tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure around 30.0 inches will then slowly move across Lake Michigan on Thursday. Increasing south winds are then forecast for Friday, becoming southwest to west on Saturday, as a cold front moves through the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during this period. Increasing southerly winds on Friday may build waves to 3 to 5 feet north of Port Washington and require a Small Craft Advisory. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee