Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
658 FXUS63 KMKX 222006 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain and drizzle will continue through the remainder of the afternoon, diminishing from west to east this evening into tonight. - Cooler/near normal temps are expected behind the cold front today through the start of the week with daily highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. - High uncertainty in timing and placement for precipitation next weekend (15 to 30 percent chance). && .SHORT TERM... Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tonight through Monday night: A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from this afternoon through Monday afternoon due to gusty winds producing 3 to 5 ft waves along Lake Michigan beaches and therefore producing a high swim risk. Based on observations, the cold frontal feature has almost completely pushed through southern Wisconsin (indicated by northwesterly wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph). Satellite indicates clearing skies and dry air intruding from the northwest, which will shut off drizzle production in the subsidence region of the frontal passage within the next few hours in southwestern Wisconsin. That being said, drizzle has been efficient so far this afternoon, and the subsidence region and its associated drizzle is therefore expected to propagate eastward into southeastern Wisconsin as steady rainfall ends in that region. Clouds will break up from west to east late this evening into tonight, and winds will diminish overnight as well. Expect overnight lows in the 40s, with the coolest temperatures in the lower 40s in the Wisconsin River Valley region. Dry conditions with northeasterly breezes expected Monday as high pressure nudges southward from the northern Plains. Partly cloudy skies will combat the cooler airmass, allowing for highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Overnight Monday, high pressure lifts back into Canada as a developing surface low in the Middle Mississippi Valley propagates northeastward. This low may produce rain and showers overnight into Tuesday, although confidence remains low (15 to 35 percent, with the highest chances in southeastern Wisconsin). Low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s are expected, with higher lows in the upper 50s near Lake Michigan. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tuesday through Sunday: Low pressure exits to the east slowly on Tuesday as it interacts with a Canadian surface high, producing a few more chances for rain and showers through the day in southeastern Wisconsin (15 to 35 percent). After this low exits, a cooler airmass and high pressure will dominate through much of the week as a Rex blocking pattern sets up across the central U.S. Uncertainty increases going into the weekend, as global models indicate potential for a system of tropical origin nudges northward into the Great Lakes region. Timing, intensity, and precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of this system in the Gulf of Mexico, and therefore my confidence for this timeframe is low. Kept NBM PoPs, which generally show a 15 to 30 percent chance from Friday through Sunday. That being said, the strength of the high pressure and blocking pattern will likely shift the timeframe of these chances farther into the future with additional model runs. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Low ceilings between 500 ft and 1500 ft will slowly rise from west to east tonight, with clouds breaking up into the overnight hours. Light rain and drizzle will continue through this evening, tapering off from west to east as well. Cold frontal passage has almost completed its passage through southern Wisconsin (draped from west of SBM to JVL currently), with gusts up to 20 kt along and immediately behind the front. Winds will remain northerly and gusty into this evening before slowly tapering off overnight into Monday morning. Winds shift to become northeasterly Monday as well, with VFR conditions expected throughout Monday. MH && .MARINE... Issued 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Gusty northerly winds in the northern half of the open waters will spread southward through the remainder of the open waters this evening into tonight, with gusts up to 30 kt expected through the overnight hours in the southern two-thirds, including in the nearshore regions. An occasional gale force gust is possible in this region of the open waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Monday afternoon for these elevated wind and wave conditions. Northerly winds will diminish Monday morning through Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the northern Great Lakes region. As high pressure pushes eastward into Canada, expect winds to shift to easterly Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is then expected to develop in the Middle Mississippi Valley and lift into the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, leading to northeasterly winds. A few thunderstorms are possible across the southern half as this low develops. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066 until 1 PM Monday. Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Monday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee