Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
136 FXUS63 KMKX 231803 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 101 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - River rises will continue early this week with some of the rivers at minor flood stage. - Showers and thunderstorms will become likely once again late Monday night into Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, while any heavy rain could aggravate the ongoing flooding. - Heat index values into the 90s will be possible on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today through Monday: A few light showers or areas of drizzle remain across srn WI this morning. Nwly winds, cold advection, and stratus clouds will continue through the morning followed by a digging shortwave trough from Canada into the northern Great Lakes. The stratus clouds will lift into cumulus this afternoon while temps warm into the middle to upper 70s. Fcst soundings indicate just enough shallow CAPE for isold to scattered brief showers over far ern WI this afternoon and early evening. High pressure and clearing skies are then expected tnt with the high moving ewd on Mon. Strong low pressure will then track across srn Canada Mon- Tue with sly winds and warm advection beginning Mon afternoon. High temps will rebound back into the lower to middle 80s away from the lake for Mon. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Monday night through Saturday: Other than the strong low tracking across srn Canada through Tue, a shortwave trough will track from the nrn Great Plains to the nrn Great Lakes. A swly LLJ of 35-50 kt and associated warm, moist advection will veer into srn WI late Mon nt. A MCS could affect a portion of or all of srn WI. A weak cold front will then follow for later Tue but there is uncertainty whether the new convective development will be in srn WI or nrn IL. Both these periods are outlooked for SVR storm potential. Dry wx returns for Wed-Thu with high pressure shifting across the state late Wed nt into Thu AM. Yet another round of strong warm, moist advection and thunderstorms arrive for Fri followed by a stronger cold front and more storms Fri nt-early Sat. This will be initiated by an upper trough and cyclogenesis moving from the nrn Great Plains to the nrn Great Lakes. Certainly cannot rule out SVR storms with this scenario. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 101 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 MVFR conditions will continue early this afternoon, slowly lifting to VFR by mid-afternoon. Lingering sprinkles or light showers will remain possible with these low clouds. Another small chance for a shower or two later this afternoon and evening, especially at SBM. A rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out, but chance to low to include. Look for mainly VFR conditions tonight into Monday morning, but some WI River Valley fog is expected. Some fog could sneak into the TAF sites, but confidence too low to include. Bersch && .MARINE... Issued 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Breezy northwest winds will prevail today in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then shift east across the lake late tonight through Monday morning with much lighter winds expected. Modest south winds will develop for Monday afternoon and night, but become breezy on Tuesday as low pressure around 29.2 inches moves across northern Ontario. Modest westerly winds will then shift to northerly Tuesday night and Wednesday following the passage of a cold front. Another stormy period of weather is expected for late Monday night and Tuesday. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee