925
FXUS63 KMKX 012012
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding and high water levels continue this week.
  Additional rises will be possible with any heavier rainfall
  (late tonight through Tuesday night).

- Thunderstorm chances late tonight through Tuesday night.
  Primary concern is the rainfall.

- Warmer / quiet weather expected Wednesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Dry and pleasant weather continues until late tonight (after
midnight). A surface pressure trough extending south from low
pressure in Manitoba (connecting to a satellite low in KS) works
with the departing high pressure system to generate strong 850-700mb
WAA late tonight, leading to a gradual increase in rain shower
coverage early Tuesday morning, with a chance for a few weak
elevated thunderstorms amongst the showers (though HREF Mean MUCAPE
is < 500 joules). One or two lulls in shower / weak
thunderstorm activity may occur mid Tuesday. In the late
afternoon / evening, the LLJ strengthens overhead (40-45 kts,
PWAT climbs to around 2.0 inches), potentially fueling showers
and weak thunderstorms capable of higher rainfall rates. Shower
and thunderstorm activity gradually decrease late Tuesday night
as a cold front crosses the region, moving clear of the CWA by
around 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

The passage of a weak high pressure system will lead to a lull
in active weather on Wednesday. West winds 10 to 20 mph behind
the cold front will only briefly provide CAA. The subsidence of
the approaching high will clear the skies out gradually, sending
Wednesday`s daytime high temps into the mid 80s. West winds
abate the lake breeze and allow areas east of the Kettle Moraine
to soar into the upper 80s.

The active weather pattern returns Thursday into Friday as low
pressure develops in the northern Plains and tracks eastward. A
semi persistent trough axis over the northern plains may allow
additional low pressure systems to follow a similar track,
leading to occasional shower / storm chances through the end of
the forecast period.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions continue and southeast winds develop into tonight
as the high pressure system departs eastward. Showers will hold
off until after midnight tonight. Cloud ceilings are currently
expected to lower from around 10 kft towards 4kft late tonight
through Tuesday AM, generally preserving VFR cigs until Tuesday
afternoon. Rain shower coverage in the region is expected to
gradually increase throughout said period, and some
thunderstorms (likely weak) may accompany the showers. Southeast
winds accelerate and veer south gradually.

Though a lull in shower / storm coverage mid Tuesday is
possible, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in lower
cloud cigs. Shower and storm chances continue until around 7 AM
CDT Wednesday, when the front moves clear of the area. West
winds and drier weather expected behind the front.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

With high pressure around 30.3 inches lingering over Lake Michigan,
winds will be light and variable for the rest of today,
predominantly westerly over the northern edge and easterly over
the southern edge. High pressure will continue moving east,
exiting the western Great Lakes Region tonight. Winds will become
southeasterly and increase tonight as low pressure around 29.4
inches moves northeast from Saskatchewan toward James Bay. Winds
will remain south to southeasterly until Tuesday night when a cold
front crosses the lake. Rain and thunderstorms are expected with
the frontal passage. Southwest to west winds are expected behind
the front. Weak high pressure returns to the region Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing a return of light and variable
winds.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM
     Wednesday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM Tuesday
     to 7 PM Tuesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Tuesday to
     7 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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