374
FXUS63 KMKX 160827
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
327 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms through early afternoon.

- Hot weather today into the middle of the week. Heat indices in
  the lower 90s on Sunday, middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday and
  lower 90s on Wednesday.

- Chances for storms through the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today and Tonight:

A shortwave trough, currently located over Minnesota and Iowa, will
move across southern Wisconsin during the late morning hours
bringing some showers now through early afternoon. Instability
builds to around 1000 J/KG from the west as 40 knot low level jet
over western Wisconsin brings a surge of moisture. The best chances
for storms will be southwest and south-central Wisconsin. Mid level
ridging builds in behind the trough for the afternoon along with a
weak cap minimizing afternoon showers. Southwest winds will gust
around 25 to 30 mph due to deep mixing tapping the low level jet.

Much warmer and more humid temperatures are expected for the early
part of the week. A strong mid level ridge sets up over the
southeast U.S. as low pressure develops over the central plains.
This brings strong and moist southerly flow into the region. Today
highs will be around 90 with heat index values in the mid 90s.

Marquardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday and Tuesday

Some areas may see heat index values near 100 on Monday and they
will be in the upper 90s on Tuesday.

There is a 20% chance of pop up storms on Monday and Tuesday. Many
areas will be dry. There will be 2000-3000 J/KG of instability and
20 knots of shear but there is lack of forcing to trigger storms.
The better chances for showers and storms will be to our northwest
where a strong low level jet surges into a frontal boundary
draped across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.


Wednesday through Saturday

The frontal boundary will slowly push southward through the state
sometime on Wednesday or Thursday bringing a better chance for rain
and thunderstorms. Lift will be aided by the right entrance region
of an upper jet. Highs may reach 90 in southeast Wisconsin on
Wednesday before the front moves through then highs will likely be
in the 80s later in the week. The frontal boundary may linger in the
area through the week bringing additional precipitation and storm
chances.

Marquardt

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, except for brief
periods during any showers or thunderstorms. Southwest winds around
2000ft will be around 40 knots through the day. South winds will
gust around 25 knots today.

Marquardt

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Winds and waves will increase today. The northern half of the open
waters will see some gusts around 30 knots.

A small craft advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 10 pm today.
Strongest winds will be during the day, then waves will linger into
the evening.

Fog may develop for Sunday night and Monday and may linger through
the early part of the week with the humid air mass over the lake.
South winds will increase again Monday night through Tuesday night.
Gusts in the open waters may reach 30 knots.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 1 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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