051
FXUS62 KMLB 261939
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Rest of Today-Monday...Very hot and mostly dry. A few brief
showers have beaten the odds and developed along the east coast
sea breeze as it collided with the Okeechobee lake breeze, and
might even get a few lightning strikes out of one or two.
Additional showers and maybe a lightning storm will be possible,
mainly along the ECSB/WCSB collision near the Kissimmee River
later in the evening. Didn`t get too cute with PoPs, and just
walked the 20 pct along the Treasure Coast counties starting at 2
PM inland to Okeechobee and southern Osceola by 8 PM, then quickly
clearing. A near carbon copy of rain and storm chances is
forecast for tomorrow, limited to the southern counties along the
sea and lake breeze collisions.

The main headline remains temperatures, especially Memorial Day.
The mid-level ridge shifts southward across Florida tomorrow,
increasing subsidence and deepening the surface high a bit,
increasing westerly flow to around 10 mph by the afternoon.
Afternoon highs today in the M-U90s inland, L-M90s along the I-95
corridor, and U80s-L90s along the barrier islands, increase a
couple more degrees tomorrow. Highs forecast in the upper 90s
across the interior, with a few 100s now advertised in Okeechobee
and southern Osceola counties. Elsewhere, highs in the M90s north
of I-4 and along the I-95 corridor, and generally in the L90s
along the barrier islands, but a few spots may only reach the
U80s, depending on the sea breeze. The slightly fresher westerly
flow will further slow progression of the ECSB, which may only
make it west of I-95 south of the Cape. Peak afternoon heat
indices up to 104F today and 105F tomorrow, but coastal locations
could briefly see higher values as moisture increases when the sea
breeze first pushes onshore.

Tuesday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...A mid-level
trough digging into the southeastern US will push a weak frontal
boundary southwards towards the Florida peninsula and local
Atlantic waters on Tuesday, bringing increasing moisture locally.
This will result in a return of rain and storm chances, with PoPs
increasing to 30 to 50 percent across the area. Isolated storms
will also be possible. The boundary is forecast to settle across
the peninsula mid-week and gradually diminish, with lingering
moisture from the boundary combining with the east coast sea
breeze to produce daily diurnal convection each afternoon through
the remainder of the week. PoPs remain between 20 to 40 percent,
with isolated storms remaining possible. Activity through the long
term will diminish each evening into the overnight hours.

Warm temperatures will continue across east central Florida
through the extended period, though guidance does have
temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees each afternoon. Highs
in the 90s Tuesday through Thursday will fall slightly into the
mid 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. Peak heat indices reaching
over 100 will continue Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Overnight
lows will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Rest of Today-Monday...Favorable boating conditions, except the
heat. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic over
Florida, with the ridge axis well to the south, remains in
command. Wrly flow 5-10 kts is interrupted in the afternoon and
evening be the sea breeze, backing winds to the S-SSE 10-15 kts. A
nocturnal wind surge Monday evening as flow returns to westerly
could push winds to 15-20 kts in the Brevard and Treasure Coast
waters the first half of the night. Seas 1-3 ft. Mostly dry
conditions.

Tuesday-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Favorable
boating conditions are forecast to continue through much of this
week. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period,
with light west-southwest winds Monday and Tuesday becoming south-
southeast and north-northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday
becoming easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Scattered showers and isolated storms return to the
forecast on Tuesday as a weak boundary approaches the area, with
rain and storm chances continuing through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Ongoing heat across east central Florida will lead to continued
sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values will remain
in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior west of I-95
through the remainder of this weekend and at least through the
middle of the week, and could drop as low as 30 percent in parts
of Okeechobee and Osceola counties. Winds are forecast to remain
below 15 mph, with the east coast sea breeze shifting west-
southwest winds to the south to southeast. Mostly dry conditions
are forecast today and Monday, with rain and storm chances
returning Tuesday through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. E/SE winds around 8-12 KT
this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland.
Greatest potential for showers and lightning storms will be along
and inland from the Treasure Coast. However timing and coverage is
too uncertain to include VC wording at this time. Will monitor and
amend as necessary. Winds will become light and variable overnight
before winds become SW and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  40
MCO  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  40
MLB  73  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  40
VRB  73  96  74  94 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  73  94  75  94 /  10   0  10  40
SFB  73  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  40
ORL  74  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  40
FPR  71  96  72  94 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson