Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
822 FXUS62 KMLB 192345 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions forecast across all terminals overnight. Lingering VCTS near SUA will diminish by 01Z, with dry conditions elsewhere. Westerly winds overnight around 5 knots will pick up around 15Z out of the north-northwest around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots will be possible Monday afternoon, and VCSH cannot be ruled out across the interior terminals (MCO/ISM/SFB) and along the coast from TIX southward. Higher confidence in VCTS across the Treasure Coast terminals after 17Z. Conditions are forecast to improve after 22Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 -Strong to severe storm threat diminishing into late this afternoon across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. -Scattered afternoon showers and storms continuing early this week, with a few stronger storms still possible across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. -Turning hotter and drier than normal from mid to late week. Currently-Tonight...An outflow boundary from earlier convection this morning that pushed south of Melbourne and the developing east coast sea breeze has helped generate scattered showers and storms across Okeechobee County and toward the coast, south of Melbourne in a moist and unstable environment. Some strong to severe storms have already formed across this region, with large hail reports up to 1.0- 1.75" in diameter, and will continue to be possible through late afternoon before convection continues to diminish in coverage and eventually pushes offshore. For now a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties, as well as the nearshore adjacent coastal waters through 7 PM, but this may be allowed to end a little early. Showers and isolated storms may still develop northward, mainly toward the coast through this evening where sea breeze can develop, but rain chances have trended much lower. Any storms that develop across this region may also become strong before pushing offshore. Monday-Next Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday. Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. NBM guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area through early this week, with rain chances ranging around 40-50 percent. However, MOS guidance is coming in a little lower, so overall confidence in PoPs remain low. There will still be the potential for a few stronger storms across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday along a slowing southward moving frontal boundary, and SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across this region. Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the state. Mentionable PoPs (no more than 20-30%) remain confined to areas south of Orlando. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach to near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) with a few locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s). A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze collision across the interior may become more slightly more active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to mention 20-30 PoPs for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 82 70 84 / 30 30 20 40 MCO 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 MLB 70 87 72 85 / 40 30 20 50 VRB 70 90 70 87 / 50 30 30 50 LEE 72 87 69 87 / 20 30 10 50 SFB 71 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 ORL 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 FPR 69 90 69 87 / 50 30 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Tollefsen