577
FXUS62 KMLB 221745
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions forecast outside of convection. Ongoing shower and
storm development across southern portions of ECFL will expand
northwestward towards the interior terminals. TEMPOs in effect at
MLB and TIX through 20Z, with TEMPOs at the interior terminals
between 19 to 23Z for MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Lingering
VCSH along the coast will diminish after 00Z, with conditions
across the interior improving after 03Z. Southeast winds will
become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the
south between 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning after 15Z. Another
day of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with VCSH at
the coastal terminals after 16Z. Activity will expand towards the
interior in the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning
storms developing along a convergent line over the local Atlantic
which extends from an area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the
Georgia and northeast Florida coasts. Current temperatures are in
the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Showers and lighting storms are expected to increase (PoPs
~50-70%) in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea
breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The main hazards
associated with lighting storms are expected to be wind gusts up
to 30mph, locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time),
and frequent lightning strikes. A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall exists over east central Florida today to the north of
the Treasure Coast where 1-3" in a short period of time has the
potential to result in minor flooding (5% risk), especially over
areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. East to
southeast winds are forecast to increase this afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland at around 10mph with gusts to 20mph.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values
in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to
partly sunny skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a
southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14
knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge
axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a
weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more
offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be
able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping
rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern
next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-
Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  60
MCO  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  60
MLB  75  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  60
VRB  75  89  74  90 /  30  60  30  60
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  91  75  93 /  50  70  30  60
ORL  76  91  75  92 /  50  70  30  60
FPR  75  89  73  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen