Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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168 FXUS62 KMLB 191435 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A batch of showers and embedded lightning storms continues to trek west into portions of Osceola and Orange counties this morning, after producing 1-2" of rain in portions of St. Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard counties (according to 3-hour MRMS estimates). Elsewhere, showers are isolated in nature and will likely remain that way through the day, after the main swath of rain pushes west of our area in the next couple of hours. A couple of embedded storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon as additional activity over the Atlantic pushes toward the coast. PoPs and thunder chances have been adjusted to reflect the latest radar/satellite trends. Also, temperatures have stayed a few degrees cooler due to rain and associated cloud cover. The forecast was updated to account for this change, lowering highs by a degree or so everywhere. Sunshine may take some time to emerge early in the afternoon, so trends will continue to be monitored for additional (downward) adjustments. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 750 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Onshore moving showers this morning. MVFR/IFR CIGs with passing SHRA and occasional TSRA. Have added MVFR CIGs until 14Z from MLB northward and across interior sites. Maintained VCTS across all sites today. Windy onshore flow with 15-20 KT and gusts 25-30 KT. Additional TSRA will be possible this afternoon but confidence and coverage is too uncertain to add VCTS in TAFs at this time. Winds decrease slightly overnight 10-12 KT across interior, with 10-15 KT and gusts 20-25 KT across the coastal sites. Kept VCSH across coastal sites tonight, but took VCSH out briefly overnight across the interior. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Hazardous boating conditions will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and gusts to around 30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft tonight and could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday. Scattered showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight, with a few lightning storms possible. Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching 10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and lightning storm chances will continue, however. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 87 76 / 50 60 50 50 MCO 87 76 88 75 / 60 40 50 20 MLB 87 77 87 76 / 50 60 60 30 VRB 87 76 87 76 / 60 50 60 30 LEE 89 76 91 76 / 50 30 40 20 SFB 87 75 88 75 / 40 40 50 30 ORL 87 76 88 76 / 60 40 50 30 FPR 87 76 87 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Watson