Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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961 FXUS62 KMLB 180216 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1016 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Showers and lightning storms are holding on a little longer than expected across the southern counties thanks to multiple boundary interactions near the frontal boundary meandering across Central Florida, and the trough aloft associated with a mid-level low over the Southeast. Had a couple stronger storms develop during the evening, and a small outbreak of hook-shaped showers and storms which had little to no rotation, but so far haven`t seen any reports beyond a few gusts to 25-35 mph. Most of this activity has dissipated or pushed offshore, but a few linger on, including a few that managed to recently develop in Lake County, which should dissipate by midnight. Made a couple changes to PoPs through the evening to match trends, but the rest of the forecast remains in good shape. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 746 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Extended VCTS through 03Z-04Z at KMLB-KSUA for TSRA/SHRA flaring up on outflow boundaries near the stalled frontal boundary west of the terminals. Short-fused AMDs for +TSRA impacts possible as this activity shifts eastward and offshore, especially KVRB-KFPR. Overnight fog or stratus generally not expected, but there is a small chance for VIS reductions at KLEE between 09Z-14Z, though too low for mention in the TAFs. Typical diurnal seabreeze pattern and near normal afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances expected again Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Now-Tonight...Improving boating conditions are expected with seas decreasing to around 3-5 ft late tonight. Winds remain light, becoming offshore overnight around 5 kt. Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible, capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher seas. Wednesday-Saturday...Light offshore flow becomes onshore behind the east coast breeze each afternoon through Thursday, before more persistent ENE wind resumes Friday into next weekend. Seas are forecast to be favorable for boating, around 2-4 ft. Daily rain and lightning storm chances will continue, especially Wed-Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 91 73 89 / 10 40 30 30 MCO 75 92 74 91 / 20 50 20 50 MLB 75 90 75 89 / 20 50 50 50 VRB 73 91 74 90 / 30 50 40 60 LEE 74 91 74 90 / 10 40 10 40 SFB 73 91 73 90 / 20 50 20 50 ORL 75 92 75 91 / 20 50 20 50 FPR 73 91 74 90 / 30 50 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Haley