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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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991 FXUS62 KMLB 271743 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 143 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Iso/sct convection has initiated generally west of SFB/DAB early this afternoon, which will bring very brief vis/cig reductions to interior terminals over the next few hours as activity drifts eastward. By 19Z, coverage is anticipated to increase, with a more robust boundary collision occurring near MCO/ISM later this afternoon. The line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move towards the coast, bringing MVFR/IFR reductions to TIX south to SUA through 23Z with erratic gusty winds anticipated. Opted to add TEMPO mention for all sites with the 18Z package, especially based on current radar trends. Activity will move offshore by 00Z. Outside of convection, VFR conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Isolated to scattered showers streaming across western Florida from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the activity pushing into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N Volusia. West to southwest flow will persist today, albeit slightly stronger than previous days, as the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic stays south of the region today. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland. However, due to the stronger offshore flow, the sea breeze may be pinned closer to the coast, and may not develop at all north of Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and lightning storms will develop through the afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze, with highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this afternoon and into early evening will be along the I-95 corridor as boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur. Lingering drier air aloft will favor a few stronger storms possible this afternoon/evening. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any stronger or slower moving storms. Hot and humid conditions once again today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 102-107 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments of rain chances through tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the nearshore waters. Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5- 10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 76 92 / 20 60 30 60 MCO 76 93 77 92 / 10 60 20 60 MLB 76 92 77 90 / 30 50 40 50 VRB 74 93 75 91 / 30 50 30 50 LEE 77 93 78 93 / 10 60 20 60 SFB 76 93 77 93 / 10 60 30 60 ORL 77 93 78 92 / 10 60 20 60 FPR 74 93 75 90 / 30 50 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Schaper