Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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742 FXUS62 KMLB 180100 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 900 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight. Isolated showers will push onshore and could spread well inland before dissipating but coverage will be low. Very dry mid levels will prevent deep convection (thunder). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mainly VFR. Easterly winds will continue overnight, decreasing 7-10 knots over the interior but remaining 10-15 knots and gusty at coastal terminals. Brief passing SHRA/MVFR CIGs possible but coverage looks too low for VCSH. On Tue, stout east flow 17-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will produce crosswinds for MCO, likely affecting AAR somewhat. A better chance for fast moving SHRA with CIGs holding just above VFR threshold, around 035AGL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tuesday-Wednesday...Onshore flow persists through midweek as upper level high pressure begins to shift north and gradually expands westward over the TN Valley. Breezy conditions are expected through the day with gusts pushing 30 mph at the coast during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance depicts waves of greater atmospheric moisture traversing the state, acting to elevate rain chances. The primary focus for repeated rounds of showers and isolated lightning storms will be nearer to the coast each day. Lower rain chances (20-40 percent) remain along and north of I-4. Generally, QPF through Thursday morning remains anywhere from a few hundredths (inland) to 0.75" of rainfall along the coast. Isolated amounts to 1.5"-2.0" cannot be ruled out where rounds of heavy downpours move over the same location. Afternoon highs remain seasonable in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees (warmer inland). Overnight lows range from the low 70s inland to the mid and upper 70s along the coast. Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Surface high pressure extending over the Florida peninsula will retreat northward by late week. Most models are in agreement that an increase in moisture across Florida will occur through late week as a surface trough is forecast to move WNW toward the southeast U.S. coast by Friday. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast Thursday with 60 percent PoP areawide. However, exact timing and placement of the highest QPF remains uncertain. Episodes of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible late week if attendant moisture from the surface trough reaches Florida. Breezy onshore flow will persist with wind speeds generally around 15 mph (up to 20 mph along the coast) late week with decreasing wind speeds into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through late week, with mid 90s possible into the weekend, mainly across the northern interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Surf conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough surf. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition, isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 87 76 87 / 20 30 20 50 MCO 74 88 75 88 / 10 30 20 40 MLB 77 87 77 87 / 20 50 40 50 VRB 76 87 76 87 / 20 50 40 50 LEE 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 30 SFB 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 75 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 40 FPR 75 87 76 87 / 20 50 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly