431
FXUS62 KMLB 051405
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Modest shower and thunderstorm chances persist today, as a ridge
axis remains extended towards the local area from the western
Atlantic. Have continued to undercut the NBM on PoPs, due to the
ridge influence and persistent onshore flow. However, CAMs suggest
the sea breeze collision will occur a bit farther eastward than
the last few days, so have upped PoPs in Lake County to around
40%. Elsewhere, PoPs 20-30%. Convective activity will begin along
the sea breeze early this afternoon. Then, some showers and storms
could linger over interior locations this evening, before
diminishing into tonight. Drier conditions will prevail by the
early morning hours. Lapse rates remain marginal today, though
drier air aloft will support DCAPE values between 900-1100J/kg.
Thus, the main threats will be lightning strikes and gusty winds
to around 45mph.

Light onshore wind this morning increases to 10-15mph behind the
sea breeze. Temperatures continue to build, with above normal
highs this afternoon reaching the mid-90s over the interior. At
the coast, temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions should largely prevail today into tonight. However,
there will be the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms, which may produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions, mainly into
the afternoon and evening as sea breeze moves inland. Greatest
potential for storms continues to be inland of the Treasure Coast
this afternoon as sea breeze interacts with the Lake Okeechobee
breeze, and then across Lake County toward sunset where the sea
breeze collision is favored. Any storms that form where the sea
breeze boundaries collide will have the potential to shift back
toward the I-4 corridor this evening before this activity
diminishes. With rain chances remaining relatively low, have
continued to limit any mention of this activity to VCSH, except
VCTS at KLEE.

Light E/SE winds around 5-7 knots will become easterly around 10-13
knots with the inland moving sea breeze boundary this afternoon.
Winds then again diminish through late evening and overnight to 5
knots or less as they veer to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Currently-Today... Favorable boating conditions outside of
lightning storms are forecast. East winds will increase into the
afternoon at 8-14kts and then veer south-southwest overnight.
Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast through
tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft.

Thursday-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated showers and
lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and evening
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
lighting storms are forecast Thursday afternoon. Isolated storms
will be capable of frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, wind
gusts to 40-50mph, and hail 1" in diameter. West to southwest
winds are expected to back onshore into Thursday afternoon at
10-15kts before veering offshore into the evening and overnight
hours. Offshore winds are expected to veer south-southeast each
afternoon through the weekend at around 10-15kts. Seas are
forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  94  72 /  20  20  60  20
MCO  94  75  96  74 /  30  20  70  20
MLB  89  74  92  73 /  20  20  70  30
VRB  90  73  93  72 /  30  20  80  30
LEE  95  75  95  75 /  40  30  40  20
SFB  94  74  97  74 /  30  20  70  20
ORL  95  75  97  75 /  30  20  70  20
FPR  90  73  93  72 /  30  20  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Weitlich