Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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735 FXUS62 KMLB 221839 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 239 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...There is a high chance (80%) for tropical development in the northwest Caribbean this week. It is too early to determine exactly what, if any, impacts this may bring to East Central Florida, however heavy rainfall is becoming an increasing concern. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates... Current-Tonight...Scattered light-moderate showers continue to spread onto the coast and further into the interior this afternoon with adequate moisture and surface heating, in spite of warm H500 temps between -3C and -4C. A diffuse sea breeze will push well inland during the day. Expect convective activity (perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm) to push thru the interior this afternoon/early evening - with showery precip ending up across WCFL. We will retain a small PoP along the Space/Treasure coasts overnight. Primary impacts from any heavier shower or isolated storms include occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds locally to 30-40 mph, and brief downpours. Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast continues to expand across the GoMex and FL peninsula promoting subsidence aloft across the region. Weak surface ridging continues north of ECFL. Gusty NE winds will diminish to light during the evening. Overnight mins in the L- M70s, perhaps a few U70s along the immediate coast, with conditions remaining muggy. Mon-Tue Night...Weak surface high pressure drifts into the western Atlc off of the Carolinas. Aloft, high pressure will transition across the GoMex and FL peninsula, ending up off of the FL east coast by the end of the period. This as an upper trough dives southward across the Plains with a closed low developing over South Dakota ending up across the ArkLaTex region by sunrise Wed morning. This feature will be responsible for eventually directing the anticipated tropical system that will be between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba late Tue overnight. Temperatures aloft remain fairly warm ~ -3C to -4C with limited instability and below normal deep layer moisture across ECFL during this time. As such, have kept PoPs well below seasonal, 10-30pct, highest well south of Orlando. Most locations will remain dry. Highs expected in the U80s near the coast with 90F to L90s into the interior. Overnight lows in the L-M70s, except U70s along the coast with conditions remaining humid. .Previous Extended Forecast Discussion... Wed-The Weekend...There is considerable uncertainty in the remainder of the forecast. The aforementioned cutoff low looks to pass through the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the eastern US. Local weather during this timeframe will be dependent on the speed and location of this feature, as it will affect the timing and track of a tropical disturbance forecast to develop in the northwest Caribbean mid to late week. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a 80% chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days, (40% next 2 days). Models differ on the timing and track of this system, but residents and visitors should stay up to date on the latest forecast. It is still too early to discuss specific impacts, if any, this system could bring to east central Florida. However, deeper moisture looks to return to the local area late week and possibly into the weekend, with increasing shower and storm chances - leading to potential heavy rainfall. We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night. .Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion... Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood Stage into mid week, before falling into Minor Flood Stage by late next week. However, northerly winds will have the potential to delay the decline, as well as any heavy rain potential past mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VCSH at all terminals for southwest moving showers. VFR forecast, although brief VIS/CIG reductions will be possible with isolated showers. Low confidence in lightning today and have kept any mention out of the 18Z TAF package. East/northeast winds increase to 10-12 kts through the afternoon. Gusts between 15-18 kts are forecast at coastal terminals. Coastal VCSH continues from MLB southward overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 74 89 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 77 89 77 89 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 73 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 73 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 75 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 75 89 75 89 / 20 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Law