417
FXUS62 KMLB 231431
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
lightning storms over the local Atlantic. Current temperatures
are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
This morning`s 10Z XMR skew-t sounding indicates ample moisture
in place with a PWAT values of 2.10", as well as mid and low RH at
80%, in addition to moderate instability with surface CAPE at
2507 J/kg and weak 0-6km shear at 12kts. There`s less certainty
in today`s forecast with differences in how much coverage of
showers and lightning storms there will be into this afternoon.
The HRRR continues to be inconsistent indicating little convection
developing to scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
this afternoon. However, the previously mentioned weather
parameters and a similar pattern to yesterday is likely to
continue above normal coverage of showers and lightning storms
this afternoon.

Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are
forecast to develop into this afternoon as boundary collisions
occur between the east coast sea breeze and the weaker west coast
sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms with the
greatest chance for showers and storms along and west of I-4, as
well as the western interior (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Weak wind fields
will result in slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall
(1-3" in a short period of time). Additionally, lightning storms
will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 30-35mph and
occasional to frequent lightning strikes. South to southeast
winds are forecast this afternoon at 5-15mph as the east coast sea
breeze moves inland into this afternoon with the exception of the
western interior where a winds will be south-southwest into this
afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat
index values in the 98-107 degree range are forecast under partly
cloudy to partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a
light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10
knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. SCT
SHRA/TSRA should develop with the sea breeze with highest coverage
over northern/interior terminals later this aftn into the eve
(KDAB/KSFB/KMCO/KLEE). These TAFs will have a TEMPO for MVFR conds
in TSRA roughly 19Z-23Z with VCSH persisting past sunset. The
last several runs of the HRRR model have not been excited about
diurnal convection but think it is underdoing the coverage. Have
less confidence for TEMPO group at MLB-SUA so will maintain
liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS there.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote
south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft
gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous
lightning storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the
local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  93  76 /  60  40  70  20
MCO  90  75  92  76 /  70  50  70  20
MLB  88  75  91  75 /  60  40  70  30
VRB  89  73  91  74 /  60  40  60  20
LEE  92  76  93  77 /  70  40  70  20
SFB  91  76  93  76 /  70  40  70  20
ORL  91  76  93  77 /  70  40  70  20
FPR  89  73  91  73 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Kelly