970
FXUS62 KMLB 211752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
152 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs have slowly lifted to VFR this morning into the early
afternoon, and that trend will continue into the remainder of the
day. VCSH continues across the interior terminals, DAB, TIX, and
MLB, with some VCTS possible after 19Z at MCO and ISM. Variable
winds this afternoon will become more ESE through the remainder of
the afternoon around 10 knots. VCSH does not end until around
01-03Z, with winds becoming SE along the coast and light and
variable across the interior. Winds pick up out of the ESE after
17Z along the coast with the development of the ECSB, with the sea
breeze reaching the interior terminals after 19Z. Increasing
shower and storm coverage is expected tomorrow afternoon as the
sea breeze moves inland. VFR conditions are expected to persist
tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida
coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida
and Georgia coasts. Conditions remain mostly favorable (50%) for
weak development with weak deep layer shear and anomalously warm
waters in place over the southwest Atlantic. However,the low is
expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with
the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of
development.

Current radar imagery shows scattered showers over the local
Atlantic and isolated showers over areas north-northwest of
Titusville. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and as
showers/storms move onshore and increase in coverage with the east
coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main hazards associated with
stronger lightning storms that develop are expected to be occasional
to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and
moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to 105
degrees under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the
waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis
passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the
south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside
below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains
in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard
with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing scattered
showers with a few embedded lightning storms will persist this
morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should decrease in
coverage. But additional late day storms over land may reach the
Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset.

Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next
week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this
weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the
coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft
through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for
offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  74  91 /  30  60  60  70
MCO  77  92  75  90 /  30  60  50  70
MLB  77  90  76  89 /  30  60  60  70
VRB  77  90  75  90 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  77  93  76  92 /  30  60  50  70
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  77  92  76  91 /  30  60  50  70
FPR  76  90  75  90 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen