Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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375 FXUS62 KMLB 190552 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Ongoing TSRA along the Treasure Coast should taper off by around 7Z. Then, dry conditions forecast through late morning. Initially offshore winds will veer easterly along the coast by around 18Z, as the east coast sea breeze develops. The sea breeze will then push inland through the day, reaching inland terminals by mid to late afternoon. Winds around 10kts or less. VCTS possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon hours. The highest chance for showers and storms looks to be the Treasure Coast, though confidence is too low to include TEMPOs at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Offshore flow and strong heating allowed max temps to reach the mid 90s along the coast, good enough to break today`s record high at DAB (94F) and tie the record high at MLB (93F). Storms pushing E/SE from north FL hooked onto the east coast sea breeze boundary in coastal Volusia county and rode southward into north Brevard before pushing offshore. Enhanced helicities behind the sea breeze produced broadly rotating storms with tightening couplets prompting a tornado warning for southern Volusia. Storms were excessive lightning producers with large hail likely aloft but which mostly melted by the time they reached the sfc. Lightning storms over the Atlc will continue into the overnight with isolated showers and storms south of Orlando where outflow boundaries will be colliding. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Now-Tonight...Light onshore flow turns offshore tonight. Seas remain generally favorable, around 3-4 ft, outside of any isolated/scattered lightning storms that push offshore this evening. Thursday-Sunday...Another day of winds becoming onshore around 10 kt Thursday afternoon, with isolated/scattered showers possible by the late afternoon and evening (mainly south of Cape Canaveral). Seas decrease further, around 2-4 ft. A surface front traverses the local waters on Friday, settling across south Florida and the Florida Straits this weekend. Northeast winds increase persistently each day, especially in the afternoon hours, gusting as high as 15-20 kt by Sunday. Seas gradually build Saturday into Sunday as a result, up to 5 ft offshore by Sunday afternoon/night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 73 88 74 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 92 74 90 73 / 40 20 20 0 MLB 90 74 88 74 / 40 30 30 10 VRB 90 73 88 73 / 50 50 40 20 LEE 90 73 90 73 / 30 10 10 0 SFB 90 73 89 72 / 40 10 20 0 ORL 92 75 90 74 / 40 10 20 0 FPR 90 73 88 72 / 60 50 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Leahy