Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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831 FXUS62 KMLB 160543 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 143 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become northeast by early morning and increase to 5-10 KT. Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection that forms along the sea breeze. Northeast winds will become light after sun down. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Convection was focused across northern and central sections today from Brevard and Osceola northward. Boundary collisions produced the heaviest rains stretching from north Brevard, Orange and into central Lake county. The highest rainfall totals occurred near Windemere where a handful of rain gages reported 4-5 inches. Wind fields were weak and lapse rates were unimpressive so downburst winds were not very strong. Peak wind gust was 40 mph at LEE. Only isolated showers remain over the interior and these will diminish soon resulting in a quiet overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Currently-Tonight... High pressure will build to the north of Florida into the overnight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and lightning storms capable of gusty winds are forecast over the local Atlantic into the early morning hours. West to southwest winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer northeast into Sunday morning. Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing 8-14 kts on Sun, 11-17 kts Sun night, and 15-22 kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD- SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed ramping up to likely Wed night. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 88 76 / 30 10 40 20 MCO 91 75 88 75 / 40 20 30 20 MLB 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 40 30 VRB 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 40 30 LEE 92 76 91 75 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 91 75 89 75 / 30 10 30 20 ORL 91 75 89 75 / 40 20 30 20 FPR 88 76 87 76 / 20 20 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Watson