Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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957 FXUS62 KMLB 150600 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions through tonight, with some model guidance hinting at MVFR conditions along the coast later this morning. However, confidence was not high this will occur, so have left it out for the time being. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period outside of convection. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT by late morning and become E/SE from ISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB- TIX, and W/SW from MLB- VRB-FPR-SUA. SCT/NUM SHRA and ISM/SCT TSRA in the afternoon. Have included VCTS for all sites starting at 20Z for all inland terminals and DAB, starting at 18/19Z for coastal terminals from TIX southward. Have not included any TEMPOs as of yet for Saturday`s convection. Activity will dissipate or move away from the local area shortly after sunset. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Shower and storm activity has diminished across east central Florida this evening, with most activity shifting westward across the peninsula. Model guidance continues to indicate limited chances for continued development overnight, so went ahead and reduced rain chances quite a bit across southern portions of the forecast area. In general, a 15 to 25 percent chance of rainfall from the Orlando metro to Melbourne and areas southward remains, though confidence in even this remains low. Outside of the rain chances, the forecast for east central Florida remains on track with minimal adjustments. Winds are forecast to become light and variable tonight, with skies remaining mostly cloudy across the south. Less cloud coverage across the Volusia area and even northern Lake County could lead to some patchy fog development as hinted at by guidance. Any fog that does manage to develop will diminish near to shortly after sunrise. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous discussion)... Invest 90L will continues to move N/NE away from the eastern US coast. The Stationary front will remain in place across central Florida. Seas 1-2ft across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. East winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer offshore overnight. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered lightning storms will continue this evening as deep tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... The stationary front will remain in place across central Florida through the early part of the weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE through Sunday, remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure will build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and continue through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday will veer E/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Onshore flow will develop on Sunday and continue through early week as the high pressure builds over the local area. Breezy conditions are forecast early next week, with speeds generally 10-15 KT will 15-20 KT possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day, especially across the southern waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 89 76 / 30 10 20 20 MCO 89 74 89 75 / 60 20 40 10 MLB 88 74 88 77 / 60 20 40 30 VRB 88 73 88 76 / 60 20 30 20 LEE 92 76 92 75 / 50 10 40 10 SFB 91 74 91 75 / 50 10 40 10 ORL 90 75 91 75 / 60 20 40 10 FPR 87 72 88 75 / 60 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Watson