Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
463 FXUS62 KMLB 160543 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 143 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Will continue to monitor thru this early morning for any MVFR CIGs/VSBYs with potential stratus/fog development. Light morning flow will gradually transition onshore along the coast in the afternoon. This NNE/NE flow will move into the interior by late in the day or early evening. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms are forecast in the afternoon/early evening, but not confident in any TEMPO groups. Will handle with "Vicinity" wording for now. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Only a couple showers left out there across Ormond Beach and near Kissimmee. Shower chances become <20% all areas overnight. Quite a bit of thin cirrus floating by, so while some patchy fog could still occur - think it will be on a more isolated basis and mainly over the southern portions of the area (Treasure Coast/Okeechobee/So. Osceola). Lows are on track to drop into the low/mid 70s. The 16/23Z evening XMR sounding exhibited significant dry air from H7 to H5, resulting in a PW of 1.62". This ribbon of drier air will remain nearby on Monday, sandwiched between deeper moisture both over N & So Fla. Thus, storm chances tomorrow will be lowest (30%) from Melbourne to Ft Pierce, and relatively higher both north and south of there (40-50%). && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tonight...Swell from low pressure off the South Carolina coast will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters with sea building up to 6-8 feet. Small craft should exercise caution for seas up to 6 feet nearshore, while a Small Craft Advisory will expand to include the entire offshore waters into tonight for seas up to 7-8 feet. Winds will be light out the W/NW north of the Cape and W/SW to the south. Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Scattered showers and lightning storms will remain in the forecast. Mariners are still reminded to keep an eye to the sky westward as the storm steering flow will continue to be WRLY, which will bring offshore moving showers and storms across the local waters. There should be ECSB formation each day as light onshore winds develop each afternoon. Winds speeds AOB 15 kts (outside of convection) through this week. Wave heights will remain elevated up to 5-6 feet nearshore and up to 6-8 feet offshore into Monday, with Small Craft Advisory continuing offshore Monday and Monday evening. Seas will gradually subside into Monday overnight with values falling to 4-6 feet Tuesday and then to 3-4 feet into midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 90 73 / 40 20 40 20 MCO 90 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 10 MLB 90 76 90 75 / 20 20 40 30 VRB 92 75 90 74 / 20 20 50 40 LEE 89 73 90 74 / 40 20 30 10 SFB 89 73 91 74 / 50 20 50 10 ORL 90 75 92 75 / 50 20 50 10 FPR 92 75 90 73 / 20 20 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572- 575. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Sedlock